Premier League · Gameweek 8
Coventry City vs Fulham Prediction
Our model makes Fulham 47.8% favourites at Coventry City.
Match preview
Coventry City are 18th on 3 points after 5 matches; Fulham are 19th on 2. In their last 5 league matches Coventry City won 1 and Fulham won 0.
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 40.8%Under 59.2%
- Both teams score
- 46.0%No 54.0%
- Expected goals
- 0.90 – 1.41Total 2.31
- Clean sheet
- 24% · 41%Coventry City · Fulham
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over | Under | Fair over | Fair under |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 68.2% | 31.8% | 4/9 | 85/40 |
| 2.5 | 40.8% | 59.2% | 6/4 | 4/6 |
| 3.5 | 20.3% | 79.7% | 4/1 | 1/4 |
Regular time only. Expected goals are averages of modelled scorelines, not shot-based xG. Goal probabilities come from the same score grid as the result probabilities and have not been separately calibrated.
Form and team news
Fantasy Premier League currently lists 7 Coventry City players and 2 Fulham players as injured, suspended or doubtful. The model adjusts for these lists from 48 hours before kickoff.
Coventry City injury news · Fulham injury news
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Why the model sees it this way
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Coventry City to score 0.90 goals and Fulham 1.41. Coventry City are newly promoted with 5 matches played, so their rating leans on a promoted-club prior and is less certain. How the model works.
Questions about Coventry City vs Fulham
Who is the favourite in Coventry City vs Fulham?
Our model's most likely result is Fulham win at 47.8%. Full probabilities: Coventry City 23.1%, draw 29.1%, Fulham 47.8%.
What is the most likely score in Coventry City vs Fulham?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 13.6%. The model expects 0.90 goals for Coventry City and 1.41 for Fulham.
Will Coventry City vs Fulham have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 40.8% and both teams to score 46.0%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. A gap between the model and the market is not evidence of a betting edge. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-10
- Matches used
- 4,541
- Model version
- dc-v4-f65e2effc175
- Data source
- Odds snapshots and finished Premier League scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.