Premier League · Gameweek 8
Chelsea vs Tottenham Prediction
Best odds are the highest price among UK sportsbooks, with who offers it (+n when others match it). “Our fair odds” are the odds our model's chance implies, with no bookmaker margin. “Bookmaker chance” is the chance the odds imply once the margin is removed. The coloured chip compares our chance with the bookmaker chance. A gap is not a betting tip.
Our model makes Chelsea 53.4% favourites against Tottenham; the market has 55.9%. Our model gives Chelsea a lower chance than the bookmakers do.
Chelsea vs Tottenham odds by bookmaker
Betfred has the lowest margin on this match at 5.7%. The highest sportsbook price for each result is marked.
| Bookmaker | 1 · Chelsea1 | X · DrawX | 2 · Tottenham2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfred | 8/11 (best price) | 10/3 (best price) | 10/3 | 5.7% |
| Paddy Power | 8/11 (best price) | 10/3 (best price) | 10/3 | 5.7% |
| Coral | 8/11 (best price) | 3/1 | 7/2 (best price) | 6.0% |
| Ladbrokes | 8/11 (best price) | 3/1 | 7/2 (best price) | 6.0% |
| William Hill | 8/11 (best price) | 3/1 | 10/3 | 6.5% |
| Unibet | 4/6 | 3/1 | 7/2 (best price) | 7.1% |
| 888sport | 8/11 (best price) | 3/1 | 10/3 | 7.2% |
| Sky Bet | 8/11 (best price) | 3/1 | 10/3 | 7.6% |
| LeoVegas | 4/6 | 3/1 | 10/3 | 8.3% |
| Betway | 4/6 | 3/1 | 3/1 | 9.9% |
| Smarkets exchange | 1/20 | 9/4 | 1/20 | 120.8% |
| Betfair Exchange exchange | 1/8 | 1/10 | 1/10 | 171.1% |
Margin is how far the bookmaker's implied chances add up past 100%; lower means a bettor keeps more of each stake on average. Exchange prices are before the commission charged on winnings, so they are not compared. Prices can change at any time. We have no commercial relationship with any bookmaker. What level stakes have returned at closing prices.
Match preview
Chelsea are 5th on 10 points after 6 matches; Tottenham are 20th on 2. In 42 Premier League meetings since 2005-06, Chelsea won 23, Tottenham won 8 and 11 were drawn. They last met on 19 May 2026: Chelsea 2–1 Tottenham. In their last 5 league matches Chelsea won 2 and Tottenham won 0.
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 63.1%Under 36.9%
- Both teams score
- 62.7%No 37.3%
- Expected goals
- 1.99 – 1.26Total 3.25
- Clean sheet
- 28% · 14%Chelsea · Tottenham
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over | Under | Fair over | Fair under |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 84.3% | 15.7% | 2/11 | 11/2 |
| 2.5 | 63.1% | 36.9% | 4/7 | 7/4 |
| 3.5 | 40.9% | 59.1% | 6/4 | 4/6 |
Regular time only. Expected goals are averages of modelled scorelines, not shot-based xG. Goal probabilities come from the same score grid as the result probabilities and have not been separately calibrated.
Form and team news
Fantasy Premier League currently lists 3 Chelsea players and 5 Tottenham players as injured, suspended or doubtful. The model adjusts for these lists from 48 hours before kickoff.
Chelsea injury news · Tottenham injury news
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Why the model sees it this way
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Chelsea to score 1.99 goals and Tottenham 1.26. Its ratings have Chelsea scoring at 1.26 times the model's Premier League average and conceding at 0.95 times, against 1.05 and 1.05 for Tottenham. The widest gap with the bookmakers is on Tottenham winning: 23.3% in the model against 20.7% implied by the odds. How the model works.
Questions about Chelsea vs Tottenham
Who is the favourite in Chelsea vs Tottenham?
Our model's most likely result is Chelsea win at 53.4%. Full probabilities: Chelsea 53.4%, draw 23.3%, Tottenham 23.3%. De-vigged market odds give 55.9%.
What is the most likely score in Chelsea vs Tottenham?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 10.5%. The model expects 1.99 goals for Chelsea and 1.26 for Tottenham.
Will Chelsea vs Tottenham have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 63.1% and both teams to score 62.7%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. A gap between the model and the market is not evidence of a betting edge. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-10
- Matches used
- 4,545
- Odds checked
- 10 Oct 2026, 18:30 UTC
- Model version
- dc-v4-5c7bbc3ad5d8
- Data source
- Odds snapshots and finished Premier League scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.