Premier League · Gameweek 9
Chelsea vs Manchester United Prediction
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Fair odds are implied by model probabilities (100 ÷ probability %). They are not bookmaker quotes. Fractional odds are approximate.
Forecast published
Model: Chelsea 45.0%
Our Premier League record: the most likely result happened in 8 of 14 predictions (57%; a random pick of home, draw or away is right about one time in three), each published before kickoff and never edited. See every prediction ›
Chelsea vs Manchester United: prediction analysis
- Over 2.5 goals: 60.7% in the model.
- Both teams to score — Yes: 62.9% in the model.
Chelsea are fourth in the Premier League with 13 points from 7 matches, while Manchester United are 13th with 6 points from 6. Chelsea’s recent form is WWLDL and Manchester United’s is DDLDW. Across 42 meetings, Chelsea have won 12, Manchester United 14 and 16 were draws; Manchester United won the last meeting 1-0 on 18 Apr 2026. Chelsea are unbeaten at home in 3 matches, while Manchester United have drawn 2 and lost 1 of 3 away.
Home and away form
Chelsea at home
4 played · 3W · 1D · 0L
Goals per match: 3.3 scored · 1.8 conceded
Results in this sample
- 10 Oct 2026 · Bournemouth · 5–1 (W)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Hull City · 2–2 (D)
- 30 Aug 2026 · Brighton · 4–3 (W)
- 19 May 2026 · Tottenham · 2–1 (W)
Manchester United away
5 played · 1W · 3D · 1L
Goals per match: 1.2 scored · 1.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 20 Sept 2026 · Fulham · 1–1 (D)
- 6 Sept 2026 · Everton · 2–2 (D)
- 22 Aug 2026 · Hull City · 0–2 (L)
- 24 May 2026 · Brighton · 3–0 (W)
- 9 May 2026 · Sunderland · 0–0 (D)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Chelsea vs Manchester United: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 60.7%Under 39.3%
- Both teams score
- 62.9%No 37.1%
- Predicted goals
- 1.74 – 1.39Total 3.14 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 25% · 17%Chelsea · Manchester United
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over probability | Over fair odds | Under probability | Under fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 82.9% | 1/5 | 17.1% | 5/1 |
| 2.5 | 60.7% | 4/6 | 39.3% | 6/4 |
| 3.5 | 38.3% | 13/8 | 61.7% | 8/13 |
Compare observed club rates in the over 2.5 goals leaderboard and BTTS leaderboard. These historical rates are separate from this match's model probabilities.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated. Read how the expected goals model and Dixon–Coles low-score correction work, or how to interpret over/under and both teams to score.
Form and team news
Fantasy Premier League currently lists 5 Chelsea players and 7 Manchester United players as injured, suspended or doubtful. The model adjusts for these lists from 48 hours before kickoff.
Chelsea injury news · Manchester United injury news
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Chelsea to score 1.74 goals and Manchester United 1.39. Its ratings have Chelsea scoring at 1.25 times the model's Premier League average and conceding at 0.94 times, against 1.16 and 0.92 for Manchester United. How the model works.
Questions about Chelsea vs Manchester United
Who is the favourite in Chelsea vs Manchester United?
Our model's most likely result is Chelsea win at 45.0%. Full probabilities: Chelsea 45.0%, draw 25.1%, Manchester United 29.9%.
What is the most likely score in Chelsea vs Manchester United?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 11.4%. The model expects 1.74 goals for Chelsea and 1.39 for Manchester United.
Will Chelsea vs Manchester United have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 60.7% and both teams to score 62.9%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-17
- Matches used
- 4,541
- Model version
- dc-v4-03c8b2b7191a
- Data source
- Finished Premier League scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.