Premier League · Gameweek 9
Aston Villa vs Fulham Prediction
Upcoming
Fair odds are implied by model probabilities (100 ÷ probability %). They are not bookmaker quotes. Fractional odds are approximate.
Forecast published
Model: Aston Villa 47.0%
Our Premier League record: the most likely result happened in 7 of 15 predictions (47%; a random pick of home, draw or away is right about one time in three), each published before kickoff and never edited. See every prediction ›
Aston Villa vs Fulham: prediction analysis
- Over 2.5 goals: 50.0% in the model.
- Both teams to score — Yes: 53.9% in the model.
Aston Villa are 12th on 8 points after 7 matches; Fulham are 16th on 5. In 28 Premier League meetings since 2005-06, Aston Villa won 12, Fulham won 7 and 9 were drawn. They last met on 25 Apr 2026: Fulham 1–0 Aston Villa. In their last 5 league matches Aston Villa won 2 and Fulham won 1.
Home and away form
Aston Villa at home
4 played · 1W · 1D · 2L
Goals per match: 1.8 scored · 1.8 conceded
Results in this sample
- 10 Oct 2026 · Brentford · 2–2 (D)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Nottingham Forest · 1–2 (L)
- 31 Aug 2026 · Arsenal · 0–1 (L)
- 15 May 2026 · Liverpool · 4–2 (W)
Fulham away
4 played · 0W · 2D · 2L
Goals per match: 0.5 scored · 1.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 10 Oct 2026 · Ipswich · 1–2 (L)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Liverpool · 0–0 (D)
- 30 Aug 2026 · Sunderland · 0–1 (L)
- 17 May 2026 · Wolverhampton · 1–1 (D)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Aston Villa vs Fulham: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 50.0%Under 50.0%
- Both teams score
- 53.9%No 46.1%
- Predicted goals
- 1.57 – 1.11Total 2.68 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 33% · 21%Aston Villa · Fulham
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over probability | Over fair odds | Under probability | Under fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 75.5% | 1/3 | 24.5% | 3/1 |
| 2.5 | 50.0% | evs | 50.0% | evs |
| 3.5 | 28.1% | 5/2 | 72.0% | 2/5 |
Compare observed club rates in the over 2.5 goals leaderboard and BTTS leaderboard. These historical rates are separate from this match's model probabilities.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated. Read how the expected goals model and Dixon–Coles low-score correction work, or how to interpret over/under and both teams to score.
Form and team news
Fantasy Premier League currently lists 6 Aston Villa players and 2 Fulham players as injured, suspended or doubtful. The model adjusts for these lists from 48 hours before kickoff.
Aston Villa injury news · Fulham injury news
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Aston Villa to score 1.57 goals and Fulham 1.11. Its ratings have Aston Villa scoring at 1.11 times the model's Premier League average and conceding at 0.92 times, against 0.95 and 0.93 for Fulham. How the model works.
Questions about Aston Villa vs Fulham
Who is the favourite in Aston Villa vs Fulham?
Our model's most likely result is Aston Villa win at 47.0%. Full probabilities: Aston Villa 47.0%, draw 26.9%, Fulham 26.1%.
What is the most likely score in Aston Villa vs Fulham?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 12.8%. The model expects 1.57 goals for Aston Villa and 1.11 for Fulham.
Will Aston Villa vs Fulham have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 50.0% and both teams to score 53.9%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-17
- Matches used
- 4,545
- Model version
- dc-v4-fae7e1cb84f2
- Data source
- Finished Premier League scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.