Premier League · Gameweek 9
Newcastle vs Everton Prediction
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Forecast published
Model: Newcastle 46.2%
Our Premier League record: the most likely result happened in 11 of 20 predictions (55%; a random pick of home, draw or away is right about one time in three), each published before kickoff and never edited. See every prediction ›
Newcastle vs Everton: prediction analysis
- Under 2.5 goals: 50.6% in the model.
- Both teams to score — Yes: 53.5% in the model.
Newcastle are 11th with 8 points, while Everton are 8th with 10 points. Newcastle’s recent form is LLWLD and Everton’s is LDWDD. Across 38 meetings, Newcastle have won 12, Everton 18 and there have been 8 draws; Everton won the last meeting 3-2 on 28 Feb 2026. Newcastle are 1-2-1 at home, while Everton are 0-3-0 away.
Home and away form
Newcastle at home
5 played · 2W · 2D · 1L
Goals per match: 1.8 scored · 1.4 conceded
Results in this sample
- 17 Oct 2026 · Aston Villa · 0–1 (L)
- 19 Sept 2026 · Hull City · 2–1 (W)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Bournemouth · 2–2 (D)
- 23 Aug 2026 · Liverpool · 2–2 (D)
- 17 May 2026 · West Ham · 3–1 (W)
Everton away
5 played · 0W · 4D · 1L
Goals per match: 1.0 scored · 1.2 conceded
Results in this sample
- 11 Oct 2026 · Hull City · 2–2 (D)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Tottenham · 0–0 (D)
- 29 Aug 2026 · Bournemouth · 1–1 (D)
- 24 May 2026 · Tottenham · 0–1 (L)
- 10 May 2026 · Crystal Palace · 2–2 (D)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Newcastle vs Everton: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 49.4%Under 50.6%
- Both teams score
- 53.5%No 46.5%
- Predicted goals
- 1.54 – 1.11Total 2.65 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 33% · 22%Newcastle · Everton
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 75.1% | 24.9% |
| 2.5 | 49.4% | 50.6% |
| 3.5 | 27.5% | 72.5% |
Compare observed club rates in the over 2.5 goals leaderboard and BTTS leaderboard. These historical rates are separate from this match's model probabilities.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated. Read how the expected goals model and Dixon–Coles low-score correction work, or how to interpret over/under and both teams to score.
Interactive score model explorer
Newcastle vs Everton: explore the scoreline grid
Starts from the model's published expected goals for this match. Move the sliders to test how a stronger or weaker side changes every scoreline, the result probabilities and the over/under and both-teams-to-score figures.
Published model: 46.2% · 27.1% · 26.6% — this grid is rebuilt from the published expected goals and matches them to within about half a percentage point.
- Newcastle win
- 46.4%
- Draw
- 27.1%
- Everton win
- 26.5%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 49.4%Under 50.6%
- Both teams score
- 53.5%No 46.5%
- Clean sheet
- 33% · 21%Newcastle · Everton
Scoreline probability grid
1–1 12.9% · most likely
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 7.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.9 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.3 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Select a scoreline to see what that result would do to the Premier League season outlook.
Draws (diagonal) Most likely scoreBelow the diagonal: newcastle wins · above: everton wins
Cells show percent. The 0–5 grid covers 99.4% of the probability mass; the outcome totals above sum over the full 0–12 goal grid so they add to 100.0%. Darker cells are more likely.
Form and team news
Fantasy Premier League currently lists 4 Newcastle players and no Everton players as injured, suspended or doubtful. The model adjusts for these lists from 48 hours before kickoff.
Everton injury news · Newcastle injury news
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Newcastle to score 1.54 goals and Everton 1.11. Its ratings have Newcastle scoring at 1.18 times the model's Premier League average and conceding at 0.99 times, against 0.88 and 0.86 for Everton. How the model works.
Questions about Newcastle vs Everton
Who is the favourite in Newcastle vs Everton?
Our model's most likely result is Newcastle win at 46.2%. Full probabilities: Newcastle 46.2%, draw 27.1%, Everton 26.6%.
What is the most likely score in Newcastle vs Everton?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 12.9%. The model expects 1.54 goals for Newcastle and 1.11 for Everton.
Will Newcastle vs Everton have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 49.4% and both teams to score 53.5%.
Probabilities come from a statistical score model and describe uncertainty, not guaranteed outcomes.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-19
- Matches used
- 4,550
- Model version
- dc-v4-2dafd6e517ae
- Data source
- Finished Premier League scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
Explore how upcoming results change the Premier League season outlook →