Serie A · Gameweek 11 · Archived pre-match analysis
Cagliari 1–0 Frosinone
Full time
Forecast published
Published model: Frosinone 49.4%
Serie A online record: 33 of 50 most likely results correct (66%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 23/50 (46%). Cagliari: 3 of 5. Frosinone: 3 of 5. See every prediction ›
Result vs our prediction
Before kickoff, the published model gave Cagliari a 27.4% probability. The highest-probability outcome was Frosinone. The result did not match that outcome. The final score was outside the five most likely published scorelines.
Snapshot recorded 7 Nov 2026, 10:05 UTC. One match cannot establish model accuracy; see the full model record.
Prediction used in our model record
Recorded before kickoff and never edited. This fixed snapshot is what the model record scores.
Pre-match context
Saved before kickoff; not rewritten after the result.
Cagliari are 12th on 13 points after 10 matches; Frosinone are 6th on 20. In 4 Serie A meetings since 2018-19, Cagliari won 2, Frosinone won 1 and 1 was drawn. They last met on 21 Jan 2024: Frosinone 3–1 Cagliari. In their last 5 league matches Cagliari won 0 and Frosinone won 3.
Team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Home and away form
Cagliari at home
4 played · 1W · 1D · 2L
Goals per match: 0.5 scored · 1.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 24 Oct 2026 · Bologna · 0–2 (L)
- 11 Oct 2026 · Juventus · 1–1 (D)
- 7 Sept 2026 · Lecce · 1–0 (W)
- 30 Aug 2026 · Inter Milan · 0–1 (L)
Frosinone away
4 played · 1W · 2D · 1L
Goals per match: 2.0 scored · 2.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 25 Oct 2026 · Atalanta · 4–4 (D)
- 10 Oct 2026 · Napoli · 0–3 (L)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Genoa · 1–1 (D)
- 29 Aug 2026 · Fiorentina · 3–0 (W)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Cagliari vs Frosinone: attack and defence ratings
Published pre-match goal probabilities
- Over 2.5 goals
- 60.6%Under 39.4%
- Both teams score
- 61.4%No 38.6%
- Predicted goals
- 1.31 – 1.82Total 3.13 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 16% · 27%Cagliari · Frosinone
Most likely scores
1–1 is the most likely single score (10.5%), but more scorelines end in Frosinone winning, so that is the most likely result (49.4%).
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 82.1% | 17.9% |
| 2.5 | 60.6% | 39.4% |
| 3.5 | 38.3% | 61.7% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Cagliari to score 1.31 goals and Frosinone 1.82. Its ratings have Cagliari scoring at 0.88 times the model's Serie A average and conceding at 1.06 times, against 1.41 and 1.11 for Frosinone. Full methodology.
Questions about Cagliari vs Frosinone
What was the Cagliari vs Frosinone result?
Cagliari 1–0 Frosinone at full time. Scores cover regular time only.
What was our pre-match prediction for Cagliari vs Frosinone?
The fixed model record stored at 2026-11-06T12:58:20.132262+00:00, before kickoff, gave Cagliari 27.4%, a draw 23.2% and Frosinone 49.4%. Probabilities are not guarantees.
What were the published pre-match expected goals for Cagliari vs Frosinone?
The forecast published at 2026-11-07T10:05:40.662068+00:00 estimated 1.31 goals for Cagliari and 1.82 for Frosinone (3.13 total). These are model expectations, not post-match shot-based xG. The most likely published score was 1–1 (10.5%).
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-07
- Matches used
- 4,551
- Model version
- dc-v4-3ba9a61d7aea
- Data source
- Finished Serie A scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
Explore how upcoming results change the Serie A season outlook →