Serie A · Gameweek 12
Parma vs Roma Prediction
Upcoming
Forecast published
Model: Roma 60.1%
Serie A online record: 33 of 50 most likely results correct (66%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 23/50 (46%). Parma: 3 of 5. Roma: 4 of 5. See every prediction ›
Parma vs Roma: prediction analysis
Parma are 16th on 8 points after 11 matches; Roma are 3rd on 27. In 28 Serie A meetings since 2005-06, Parma won 3, Roma won 22 and 3 were drawn. They last met on 10 May 2026: Parma 2–3 Roma. In their last 5 league matches Parma won 1 and Roma won 4.
Team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Home and away form
Parma at home
5 played · 1W · 2D · 2L
Goals per match: 0.8 scored · 1.4 conceded
Results in this sample
- 7 Nov 2026 · Bologna · 1–2 (L)
- 28 Oct 2026 · Udinese · 0–0 (D)
- 19 Oct 2026 · Torino · 0–3 (L)
- 20 Sept 2026 · Genoa · 2–1 (W)
- 6 Sept 2026 · Monza · 1–1 (D)
Roma away
5 played · 3W · 2D · 0L
Goals per match: 2.8 scored · 1.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 31 Oct 2026 · Udinese · 5–2 (W)
- 24 Oct 2026 · Napoli · 3–3 (D)
- 11 Oct 2026 · Como · 0–0 (D)
- 14 Sept 2026 · Torino · 2–0 (W)
- 31 Aug 2026 · Lecce · 4–0 (W)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Parma vs Roma: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 44.2%Under 55.8%
- Both teams score
- 43.0%No 57.0%
- Predicted goals
- 0.74 – 1.70Total 2.44 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 18% · 47%Parma · Roma
Most likely scores
No single score is likely: even the most likely, 0–1, happens only 14.6% of the time.
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 70.2% | 29.8% |
| 2.5 | 44.2% | 55.8% |
| 3.5 | 23.1% | 77.0% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Parma to score 0.74 goals and Roma 1.70. Its ratings have Parma scoring at 0.77 times the model's Serie A average and conceding at 0.98 times, against 1.43 and 0.73 for Roma. Full methodology.
Questions about Parma vs Roma
Who is the favourite in Parma vs Roma?
Our model's most likely result is Roma win at 60.1%. Full probabilities: Parma 16.0%, draw 23.9%, Roma 60.1%.
What is the most likely score in Parma vs Roma?
0–1 is the single most likely score at 14.6%. The model expects 0.74 goals for Parma and 1.70 for Roma.
Will Parma vs Roma have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 44.2% and both teams to score 43.0%.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-12
- Matches used
- 4,560
- Model version
- dc-v4-7ba86aed7ebe
- Data source
- Finished Serie A scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
Explore how upcoming results change the Serie A season outlook →