Serie A · Gameweek 12
Napoli vs Torino Prediction
Upcoming
Forecast published
Model: Napoli 58.4%
Serie A online record: 33 of 50 most likely results correct (66%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 23/50 (46%). Napoli: 2 of 5. Torino: 4 of 5. See every prediction ›
Napoli vs Torino: prediction analysis
Napoli are 10th on 15 points after 11 matches; Torino are 11th on 14. In 32 Serie A meetings since 2007-08, Napoli won 19, Torino won 6 and 7 were drawn. They last met on 6 Mar 2026: Napoli 2–1 Torino. In their last 5 league matches Napoli won 1 and Torino won 2.
Team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Home and away form
Napoli at home
5 played · 2W · 2D · 1L
Goals per match: 1.8 scored · 1.2 conceded
Results in this sample
- 8 Nov 2026 · Lazio · 1–1 (D)
- 24 Oct 2026 · Roma · 3–3 (D)
- 10 Oct 2026 · Frosinone · 3–0 (W)
- 13 Sept 2026 · Bologna · 1–0 (W)
- 30 Aug 2026 · Como · 1–2 (L)
Torino away
5 played · 2W · 1D · 2L
Goals per match: 1.4 scored · 1.2 conceded
Results in this sample
- 1 Nov 2026 · Frosinone · 0–2 (L)
- 19 Oct 2026 · Parma · 3–0 (W)
- 19 Sept 2026 · Bologna · 1–1 (D)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Fiorentina · 2–1 (W)
- 29 Aug 2026 · Sassuolo · 1–2 (L)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Napoli vs Torino: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 48.3%Under 51.7%
- Both teams score
- 47.7%No 52.3%
- Predicted goals
- 1.75 – 0.86Total 2.61 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 42% · 17%Napoli · Torino
Most likely scores
No single score is likely: even the most likely, 1–0, happens only 12.8% of the time.
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 73.5% | 26.5% |
| 2.5 | 48.3% | 51.7% |
| 3.5 | 26.6% | 73.5% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Napoli to score 1.75 goals and Torino 0.86. Its ratings have Napoli scoring at 1.27 times the model's Serie A average and conceding at 0.75 times, against 0.95 and 1.03 for Torino. Full methodology.
Questions about Napoli vs Torino
Who is the favourite in Napoli vs Torino?
Our model's most likely result is Napoli win at 58.4%. Full probabilities: Napoli 58.4%, draw 23.6%, Torino 18.0%.
What is the most likely score in Napoli vs Torino?
1–0 is the single most likely score at 12.8%. The model expects 1.75 goals for Napoli and 0.86 for Torino.
Will Napoli vs Torino have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 48.3% and both teams to score 47.7%.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-12
- Matches used
- 4,560
- Model version
- dc-v4-7ba86aed7ebe
- Data source
- Finished Serie A scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
Explore how upcoming results change the Serie A season outlook →