Serie A · Gameweek 12
Como vs Cagliari Prediction
Upcoming
Forecast published
Model: Como 61.3%
Serie A online record: 33 of 50 most likely results correct (66%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 23/50 (46%). Como: 5 of 5. Cagliari: 3 of 5. See every prediction ›
Como vs Cagliari: prediction analysis
Como are 5th on 23 points after 11 matches; Cagliari are 9th on 16. In 4 Serie A meetings since 2024-25, Como won 2, Cagliari won 0 and 2 were drawn. They last met on 7 Mar 2026: Cagliari 1–2 Como. In their last 5 league matches Como won 4 and Cagliari won 1.
Team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Home and away form
Como at home
4 played · 3W · 1D · 0L
Goals per match: 1.3 scored · 0.3 conceded
Results in this sample
- 1 Nov 2026 · Venezia · 1–0 (W)
- 24 Oct 2026 · Sassuolo · 2–0 (W)
- 11 Oct 2026 · Roma · 0–0 (D)
- 14 Sept 2026 · Parma · 2–1 (W)
Cagliari away
5 played · 2W · 0D · 3L
Goals per match: 1.2 scored · 2.2 conceded
Results in this sample
- 1 Nov 2026 · Lazio · 1–2 (L)
- 27 Oct 2026 · Roma · 2–4 (L)
- 19 Oct 2026 · Monza · 0–4 (L)
- 19 Sept 2026 · Udinese · 1–0 (W)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Atalanta · 2–1 (W)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Como vs Cagliari: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 46.7%Under 53.3%
- Both teams score
- 44.6%No 55.4%
- Predicted goals
- 1.77 – 0.77Total 2.54 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 46% · 17%Como · Cagliari
Most likely scores
No single score is likely: even the most likely, 1–0, happens only 13.8% of the time.
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 72.2% | 27.8% |
| 2.5 | 46.7% | 53.3% |
| 3.5 | 25.1% | 74.9% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Recent meetings
Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Como to score 1.77 goals and Cagliari 0.77. Its ratings have Como scoring at 1.27 times the model's Serie A average and conceding at 0.73 times, against 0.87 and 1.04 for Cagliari. Full methodology.
Questions about Como vs Cagliari
Who is the favourite in Como vs Cagliari?
Our model's most likely result is Como win at 61.3%. Full probabilities: Como 61.3%, draw 23.1%, Cagliari 15.7%.
What is the most likely score in Como vs Cagliari?
1–0 is the single most likely score at 13.8%. The model expects 1.77 goals for Como and 0.77 for Cagliari.
Will Como vs Cagliari have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 46.7% and both teams to score 44.6%.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-12
- Matches used
- 4,560
- Model version
- dc-v4-7ba86aed7ebe
- Data source
- Finished Serie A scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
Explore how upcoming results change the Serie A season outlook →