Serie A · Gameweek 12
Lazio vs Lecce Prediction
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Forecast published
Model: Lazio 61.3%
Serie A online record: 33 of 50 most likely results correct (66%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 23/50 (46%). Lazio: 3 of 5. Lecce: 3 of 5. See every prediction ›
Lazio vs Lecce: prediction analysis
Lazio are 1st on 29 points after 11 matches; Lecce are 14th on 10. In 18 Serie A meetings since 2005-06, Lazio won 8, Lecce won 5 and 5 were drawn. They last met on 24 Jan 2026: Lecce 0–0 Lazio. In their last 5 league matches Lazio won 4 and Lecce won 1.
Team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Home and away form
Lazio at home
5 played · 4W · 1D · 0L
Goals per match: 2.0 scored · 1.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 1 Nov 2026 · Cagliari · 2–1 (W)
- 24 Oct 2026 · Parma · 2–1 (W)
- 11 Oct 2026 · Monza · 3–1 (W)
- 12 Sept 2026 · AC Milan · 2–2 (D)
- 30 Aug 2026 · Genoa · 1–0 (W)
Lecce away
5 played · 1W · 1D · 3L
Goals per match: 1.0 scored · 2.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 7 Nov 2026 · Torino · 1–1 (D)
- 29 Oct 2026 · Frosinone · 1–5 (L)
- 18 Oct 2026 · Udinese · 3–0 (W)
- 20 Sept 2026 · AC Milan · 0–3 (L)
- 7 Sept 2026 · Cagliari · 0–1 (L)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Lazio vs Lecce: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 43.8%Under 56.2%
- Both teams score
- 41.9%No 58.1%
- Predicted goals
- 1.72 – 0.71Total 2.43 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 49% · 18%Lazio · Lecce
Most likely scores
No single score is likely: even the most likely, 1–0, happens only 15.0% of the time.
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 69.9% | 30.1% |
| 2.5 | 43.8% | 56.2% |
| 3.5 | 22.7% | 77.3% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Lazio to score 1.72 goals and Lecce 0.71. Its ratings have Lazio scoring at 1.19 times the model's Serie A average and conceding at 0.82 times, against 0.72 and 1.08 for Lecce. Full methodology.
Questions about Lazio vs Lecce
Who is the favourite in Lazio vs Lecce?
Our model's most likely result is Lazio win at 61.3%. Full probabilities: Lazio 61.3%, draw 23.6%, Lecce 15.0%.
What is the most likely score in Lazio vs Lecce?
1–0 is the single most likely score at 15.0%. The model expects 1.72 goals for Lazio and 0.71 for Lecce.
Will Lazio vs Lecce have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 43.8% and both teams to score 41.9%.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-12
- Matches used
- 4,560
- Model version
- dc-v4-7ba86aed7ebe
- Data source
- Finished Serie A scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
Explore how upcoming results change the Serie A season outlook →