Serie A · Gameweek 11 · Archived pre-match analysis
Genoa 1–2 AC Milan
Full time
Forecast published
Published model: AC Milan 49.5%
Serie A online record: 33 of 50 most likely results correct (66%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 23/50 (46%). Genoa: 4 of 5. AC Milan: 3 of 5. See every prediction ›
Result vs our prediction
Before kickoff, the published model gave AC Milan a 49.5% probability. The highest-probability outcome was AC Milan. The result matched that outcome. The final score ranked #4 in the five most likely published scorelines.
Snapshot recorded 8 Nov 2026, 12:05 UTC. One match cannot establish model accuracy; see the full model record.
Prediction used in our model record
Recorded before kickoff and never edited. This fixed snapshot is what the model record scores.
Pre-match context
Saved before kickoff; not rewritten after the result.
Genoa are 12th in Serie A with 13 points, while AC Milan are fifth with 21 points. Genoa’s recent form is WWWLW, compared with AC Milan’s WLWWD. AC Milan lead the head-to-head record with 21 wins to Genoa’s 7 across 36 meetings, including a 2-1 win on 17 May 2026. Genoa have won 3 of 6 at home, while AC Milan are unbeaten away with 2 wins and 3 draws.
Team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Home and away form
Genoa at home
5 played · 3W · 1D · 1L
Goals per match: 1.4 scored · 1.2 conceded
Results in this sample
- 28 Oct 2026 · Juventus · 2–0 (W)
- 25 Oct 2026 · Venezia · 1–0 (W)
- 10 Oct 2026 · Fiorentina · 2–1 (W)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Frosinone · 1–1 (D)
- 4 Sept 2026 · Como · 1–4 (L)
AC Milan away
4 played · 1W · 3D · 0L
Goals per match: 1.5 scored · 1.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 25 Oct 2026 · Udinese · 2–0 (W)
- 11 Oct 2026 · Sassuolo · 1–1 (D)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Lazio · 2–2 (D)
- 6 Sept 2026 · Juventus · 1–1 (D)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Genoa vs AC Milan: attack and defence ratings
Published pre-match goal probabilities
- Over 2.5 goals
- 45.3%Under 54.7%
- Both teams score
- 48.7%No 51.3%
- Predicted goals
- 0.98 – 1.51Total 2.49 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 22% · 38%Genoa · AC Milan
Most likely scores
No single score is likely: even the most likely, 0–1, happens only 12.4% of the time.
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 71.2% | 28.9% |
| 2.5 | 45.3% | 54.7% |
| 3.5 | 24.0% | 76.0% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Genoa to score 0.98 goals and AC Milan 1.51. Its ratings have Genoa scoring at 0.89 times the model's Serie A average and conceding at 0.96 times, against 1.31 and 0.82 for AC Milan. Full methodology.
Questions about Genoa vs AC Milan
What was the Genoa vs AC Milan result?
Genoa 1–2 AC Milan at full time. Scores cover regular time only.
What was our pre-match prediction for Genoa vs AC Milan?
The fixed model record stored at 2026-11-07T10:05:40.662068+00:00, before kickoff, gave Genoa 24.2%, a draw 26.2% and AC Milan 49.6%. Probabilities are not guarantees.
What were the published pre-match expected goals for Genoa vs AC Milan?
The forecast published at 2026-11-08T12:05:31.658553+00:00 estimated 0.98 goals for Genoa and 1.51 for AC Milan (2.49 total). These are model expectations, not post-match shot-based xG. The most likely published score was 0–1 (12.4%).
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-08
- Matches used
- 4,555
- Model version
- dc-v4-12c3377d4128
- Data source
- Finished Serie A scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
Explore how upcoming results change the Serie A season outlook →