Serie A · Gameweek 12
Sassuolo vs Genoa Prediction
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Forecast published
Model: Sassuolo 38.1%
Serie A online record: 33 of 50 most likely results correct (66%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 23/50 (46%). Sassuolo: 5 of 5. Genoa: 4 of 5. See every prediction ›
Sassuolo vs Genoa: prediction analysis
Sassuolo are 17th on 8 points after 11 matches; Genoa are 13th on 13. In 22 Serie A meetings since 2013-14, Sassuolo won 8, Genoa won 9 and 5 were drawn. They last met on 12 Apr 2026: Genoa 2–1 Sassuolo. In their last 5 league matches Sassuolo won 0 and Genoa won 3.
Team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Home and away form
Sassuolo at home
5 played · 2W · 1D · 2L
Goals per match: 2.0 scored · 2.8 conceded
Results in this sample
- 2 Nov 2026 · Fiorentina · 2–4 (L)
- 27 Oct 2026 · Lazio · 2–6 (L)
- 11 Oct 2026 · AC Milan · 1–1 (D)
- 13 Sept 2026 · Juventus · 3–2 (W)
- 29 Aug 2026 · Torino · 2–1 (W)
Genoa away
4 played · 1W · 0D · 3L
Goals per match: 0.8 scored · 1.5 conceded
Results in this sample
- 1 Nov 2026 · Lecce · 2–1 (W)
- 17 Oct 2026 · Roma · 0–2 (L)
- 20 Sept 2026 · Parma · 1–2 (L)
- 30 Aug 2026 · Lazio · 0–1 (L)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Sassuolo vs Genoa: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 50.5%Under 49.5%
- Both teams score
- 54.9%No 45.1%
- Predicted goals
- 1.37 – 1.32Total 2.69 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 27% · 25%Sassuolo · Genoa
Most likely scores
1–1 is the most likely single score (12.4%), but more scorelines end in Sassuolo winning, so that is the most likely result (38.1%).
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 75.2% | 24.8% |
| 2.5 | 50.5% | 49.5% |
| 3.5 | 28.5% | 71.5% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Sassuolo to score 1.37 goals and Genoa 1.32. Its ratings have Sassuolo scoring at 1.06 times the model's Serie A average and conceding at 1.23 times, against 0.89 and 0.96 for Genoa. Full methodology.
Questions about Sassuolo vs Genoa
Who is the favourite in Sassuolo vs Genoa?
Our model's most likely result is Sassuolo win at 38.1%. Full probabilities: Sassuolo 38.1%, draw 26.1%, Genoa 35.8%.
What is the most likely score in Sassuolo vs Genoa?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 12.4%. The model expects 1.37 goals for Sassuolo and 1.32 for Genoa.
Will Sassuolo vs Genoa have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 50.5% and both teams to score 54.9%.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-11
- Matches used
- 4,560
- Model version
- dc-v4-eebb108c6b41
- Data source
- Finished Serie A scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
Explore how upcoming results change the Serie A season outlook →