Serie A · Gameweek 12
Bologna vs Udinese Prediction
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Forecast published
Model: Bologna 51.4%
Serie A online record: 33 of 50 most likely results correct (66%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 23/50 (46%). Bologna: 4 of 5. Udinese: 2 of 5. See every prediction ›
Bologna vs Udinese: prediction analysis
Bologna are 8th on 17 points after 11 matches; Udinese are 20th on 5. In 34 Serie A meetings since 2008-09, Bologna won 9, Udinese won 12 and 13 were drawn. They last met on 23 Feb 2026: Bologna 1–0 Udinese. In their last 5 league matches Bologna won 4 and Udinese won 0.
Team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Home and away form
Bologna at home
4 played · 1W · 2D · 1L
Goals per match: 1.5 scored · 1.8 conceded
Results in this sample
- 31 Oct 2026 · Monza · 2–1 (W)
- 17 Oct 2026 · Inter Milan · 1–3 (L)
- 19 Sept 2026 · Torino · 1–1 (D)
- 6 Sept 2026 · Sassuolo · 2–2 (D)
Udinese away
5 played · 1W · 1D · 3L
Goals per match: 1.6 scored · 2.2 conceded
Results in this sample
- 6 Nov 2026 · Venezia · 1–2 (L)
- 28 Oct 2026 · Parma · 0–0 (D)
- 12 Oct 2026 · Torino · 1–2 (L)
- 14 Sept 2026 · Inter Milan · 3–5 (L)
- 29 Aug 2026 · Monza · 3–2 (W)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Bologna vs Udinese: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 49.5%Under 50.5%
- Both teams score
- 51.6%No 48.4%
- Predicted goals
- 1.63 – 1.02Total 2.65 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 36% · 20%Bologna · Udinese
Most likely scores
1–1 is the most likely single score (11.9%), but more scorelines end in Bologna winning, so that is the most likely result (51.4%).
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 74.4% | 25.6% |
| 2.5 | 49.5% | 50.5% |
| 3.5 | 27.5% | 72.5% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Bologna to score 1.63 goals and Udinese 1.02. Its ratings have Bologna scoring at 1.12 times the model's Serie A average and conceding at 0.90 times, against 0.94 and 1.09 for Udinese. Full methodology.
Questions about Bologna vs Udinese
Who is the favourite in Bologna vs Udinese?
Our model's most likely result is Bologna win at 51.4%. Full probabilities: Bologna 51.4%, draw 24.9%, Udinese 23.6%.
What is the most likely score in Bologna vs Udinese?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 11.9%. The model expects 1.63 goals for Bologna and 1.02 for Udinese.
Will Bologna vs Udinese have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 49.5% and both teams to score 51.6%.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-12
- Matches used
- 4,560
- Model version
- dc-v4-7ba86aed7ebe
- Data source
- Finished Serie A scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
Explore how upcoming results change the Serie A season outlook →