Serie A · Gameweek 12
Atalanta vs Inter Milan Prediction
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Forecast published
Model: Inter Milan 51.3%
Serie A online record: 33 of 50 most likely results correct (66%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 23/50 (46%). Atalanta: 2 of 5. Inter Milan: 4 of 5. See every prediction ›
Atalanta vs Inter Milan: prediction analysis
Atalanta are 12th on 14 points after 11 matches; Inter Milan are 2nd on 28. In 38 Serie A meetings since 2006-07, Atalanta won 6, Inter Milan won 19 and 13 were drawn. They last met on 14 Mar 2026: Inter Milan 1–1 Atalanta. In their last 5 league matches Atalanta won 1 and Inter Milan won 4.
Team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Home and away form
Atalanta at home
5 played · 2W · 1D · 2L
Goals per match: 1.8 scored · 2.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 2 Nov 2026 · Parma · 0–3 (L)
- 25 Oct 2026 · Frosinone · 4–4 (D)
- 12 Oct 2026 · Venezia · 3–1 (W)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Cagliari · 1–2 (L)
- 31 Aug 2026 · Bologna · 1–0 (W)
Inter Milan away
5 played · 3W · 1D · 1L
Goals per match: 1.8 scored · 1.2 conceded
Results in this sample
- 31 Oct 2026 · AC Milan · 1–3 (L)
- 28 Oct 2026 · Venezia · 2–0 (W)
- 17 Oct 2026 · Bologna · 3–1 (W)
- 19 Sept 2026 · Roma · 2–2 (D)
- 30 Aug 2026 · Cagliari · 1–0 (W)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Atalanta vs Inter Milan: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 61.4%Under 38.6%
- Both teams score
- 61.5%No 38.5%
- Predicted goals
- 1.28 – 1.88Total 3.17 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 15% · 28%Atalanta · Inter Milan
Most likely scores
1–1 is the most likely single score (10.3%), but more scorelines end in Inter Milan winning, so that is the most likely result (51.3%).
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 82.6% | 17.4% |
| 2.5 | 61.4% | 38.6% |
| 3.5 | 39.1% | 60.9% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Atalanta to score 1.28 goals and Inter Milan 1.88. Its ratings have Atalanta scoring at 1.29 times the model's Serie A average and conceding at 0.88 times, against 1.78 and 0.74 for Inter Milan. Full methodology.
Questions about Atalanta vs Inter Milan
Who is the favourite in Atalanta vs Inter Milan?
Our model's most likely result is Inter Milan win at 51.3%. Full probabilities: Atalanta 26.0%, draw 22.7%, Inter Milan 51.3%.
What is the most likely score in Atalanta vs Inter Milan?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 10.3%. The model expects 1.28 goals for Atalanta and 1.88 for Inter Milan.
Will Atalanta vs Inter Milan have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 61.4% and both teams to score 61.5%.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-12
- Matches used
- 4,560
- Model version
- dc-v4-7ba86aed7ebe
- Data source
- Finished Serie A scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
Explore how upcoming results change the Serie A season outlook →