Serie A · Gameweek 12
Monza vs Fiorentina Prediction
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Forecast published
Model: Fiorentina 48.5%
Serie A online record: 33 of 50 most likely results correct (66%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 23/50 (46%). Monza: 4 of 5. Fiorentina: 3 of 5. See every prediction ›
Monza vs Fiorentina: prediction analysis
Monza are 18th on 7 points, while Fiorentina are 15th on 9 points. Monza’s recent form is LLLLW, compared with Fiorentina’s DWDLL. The head-to-head record is balanced at two wins each and two draws across 6 meetings, with Monza winning the last meeting 2-1 on 13 Jan 2025. Both teams have won 2 and lost 3 of their 5 home or away matches respectively.
Team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Home and away form
Monza at home
5 played · 2W · 0D · 3L
Goals per match: 1.8 scored · 1.8 conceded
Results in this sample
- 8 Nov 2026 · Atalanta · 0–1 (L)
- 28 Oct 2026 · Napoli · 1–4 (L)
- 19 Oct 2026 · Cagliari · 4–0 (W)
- 18 Sept 2026 · Sassuolo · 2–1 (W)
- 29 Aug 2026 · Udinese · 2–3 (L)
Fiorentina away
4 played · 2W · 0D · 2L
Goals per match: 2.5 scored · 2.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 2 Nov 2026 · Sassuolo · 4–2 (W)
- 25 Oct 2026 · Inter Milan · 1–2 (L)
- 10 Oct 2026 · Genoa · 1–2 (L)
- 11 Sept 2026 · Venezia · 4–2 (W)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Monza vs Fiorentina: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 58.4%Under 41.6%
- Both teams score
- 59.8%No 40.2%
- Predicted goals
- 1.28 – 1.76Total 3.03 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 17% · 28%Monza · Fiorentina
Most likely scores
1–1 is the most likely single score (10.9%), but more scorelines end in Fiorentina winning, so that is the most likely result (48.5%).
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 80.7% | 19.3% |
| 2.5 | 58.4% | 41.6% |
| 3.5 | 36.0% | 64.0% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Monza to score 1.28 goals and Fiorentina 1.76. Its ratings have Monza scoring at 0.94 times the model's Serie A average and conceding at 1.30 times, against 1.12 and 1.02 for Fiorentina. Full methodology.
Questions about Monza vs Fiorentina
Who is the favourite in Monza vs Fiorentina?
Our model's most likely result is Fiorentina win at 48.5%. Full probabilities: Monza 27.8%, draw 23.6%, Fiorentina 48.5%.
What is the most likely score in Monza vs Fiorentina?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 10.9%. The model expects 1.28 goals for Monza and 1.76 for Fiorentina.
Will Monza vs Fiorentina have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 58.4% and both teams to score 59.8%.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-12
- Matches used
- 4,560
- Model version
- dc-v4-7ba86aed7ebe
- Data source
- Finished Serie A scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
Explore how upcoming results change the Serie A season outlook →