Serie A · Gameweek 13
Venezia vs Bologna Prediction
Upcoming
Forecast published
Model: Bologna 51.3%
Serie A online record: 33 of 50 most likely results correct (66%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 23/50 (46%). Venezia: 3 of 5. Bologna: 4 of 5. See every prediction ›
Venezia vs Bologna: prediction analysis
Venezia are 19th in Serie A with 6 points from 11 matches, while Bologna are eighth with 17 points. Venezia’s recent form is WLLLW, compared with Bologna’s WWWWL. The head-to-head record is level at two wins each across four meetings, although Bologna won the last meeting 1-0 on 29 Mar 2025. Venezia have won 2 of 6 at home, while Bologna have won 4 of 6 away.
Team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Home and away form
Venezia at home
5 played · 2W · 0D · 3L
Goals per match: 1.0 scored · 1.8 conceded
Results in this sample
- 6 Nov 2026 · Udinese · 2–1 (W)
- 28 Oct 2026 · Inter Milan · 0–2 (L)
- 17 Oct 2026 · Napoli · 1–0 (W)
- 19 Sept 2026 · Lazio · 0–2 (L)
- 11 Sept 2026 · Fiorentina · 2–4 (L)
Bologna away
5 played · 4W · 0D · 1L
Goals per match: 2.0 scored · 1.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 7 Nov 2026 · Parma · 2–1 (W)
- 28 Oct 2026 · AC Milan · 4–2 (W)
- 24 Oct 2026 · Cagliari · 2–0 (W)
- 11 Oct 2026 · Lecce · 2–1 (W)
- 13 Sept 2026 · Napoli · 0–1 (L)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Venezia vs Bologna: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 44.0%Under 56.0%
- Both teams score
- 47.0%No 53.0%
- Predicted goals
- 0.91 – 1.52Total 2.44 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 22% · 40%Venezia · Bologna
Most likely scores
No single score is likely: even the most likely, 0–1, happens only 13.2% of the time.
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 70.0% | 29.9% |
| 2.5 | 44.0% | 56.0% |
| 3.5 | 22.9% | 77.1% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Venezia to score 0.91 goals and Bologna 1.52. Its ratings have Venezia scoring at 0.76 times the model's Serie A average and conceding at 1.13 times, against 1.12 and 0.90 for Bologna. Full methodology.
Questions about Venezia vs Bologna
Who is the favourite in Venezia vs Bologna?
Our model's most likely result is Bologna win at 51.3%. Full probabilities: Venezia 22.5%, draw 26.1%, Bologna 51.3%.
What is the most likely score in Venezia vs Bologna?
0–1 is the single most likely score at 13.2%. The model expects 0.91 goals for Venezia and 1.52 for Bologna.
Will Venezia vs Bologna have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 44.0% and both teams to score 47.0%.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-13
- Matches used
- 4,560
- Model version
- dc-v4-405e37befa3a
- Data source
- Finished Serie A scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
Explore how upcoming results change the Serie A season outlook →