Ligue 1 · independent league model
Ligue 1 2026-27 Gameweek 10: Predictions and Results
Gameweek 10 of the 2026-27 Ligue 1 runs from 6 Nov 2026 to 8 Nov 2026 with 9 published matches. The model's strongest favourite is Paris Saint-Germain at 83.4% against Troyes.
9 gameweek 10 matches with a published pre-match prediction are complete. The model's most likely result happened in 5 of them. The least expected result was Le Mans 1–1 Monaco, which the model gave 23.1%.
| Match | Kickoff | Model % 1 / X / 2 | Likely | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ToulouseStrasbourg | 40 / 26 / 34 | 1–1 | 3–1 | |
| AuxerreParis FC | 32 / 27 / 42 | 1–1 | 0–1 | |
| Paris Saint-GermainTroyes | 83 / 11 / 5 | 3–0 | 1–0 | |
| RennesLille | 37 / 26 / 36 | 1–1 | 1–2 | |
| Le MansMonaco | 27 / 23 / 50 | 1–1 | 1–1 | |
| BrestLyon | 33 / 25 / 42 | 1–1 | 2–0 | |
| Le HavreLorient | 34 / 28 / 37 | 1–1 | 0–2 | |
| AngersNice | 29 / 29 / 43 | 1–1 | 0–2 | |
| LensMarseille | 46 / 24 / 30 | 1–1 | 1–2 |
How the predictions did
- Least expected result
- Le Mans 1–1 Monaco
- Matches scored
- 9
- Model's most likely result happened
- 5 of 9
- Accuracy score (log loss)
- 0.956
One round is a small sample. See the long-run model record.
Sources and model limits
Fixtures, results and provider standings: football-data.org. Completed score history since 2005-06: football-data.co.uk. Forecasts use only results available before their publication time.
The source carries exact kickoff times from 2019-20. Earlier seasons give the date only and are read as a 15:00 kickoff in the competition's own timezone, which keeps those results out of training until three hours later.
No verified injury or confirmed-lineup adjustment is included for Ligue 1. Promotion playoffs and promotion probabilities are outside this model. Probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. Check this league's model record.