Ligue 1 · Gameweek 10 · Archived pre-match analysis
Brest 2–0 Lyon
Full time
Forecast published
Published model: Lyon 41.7%
Ligue 1 online record: 20 of 36 most likely results correct (56%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 17/36 (47%). See every prediction ›
Result vs our prediction
Before kickoff, the published model gave Brest a 32.9% probability. The highest-probability outcome was Lyon. The result did not match that outcome. The final score was outside the five most likely published scorelines.
Snapshot recorded 8 Nov 2026, 12:05 UTC. One match cannot establish model accuracy; see the full model record.
Prediction used in our model record
Recorded before kickoff and never edited. This fixed snapshot is what the model record scores.
Pre-match context
Saved before kickoff; not rewritten after the result.
Brest are 11th with 12 points, while Lyon sit 4th on 17 points. Brest’s recent form is WLDWL; Lyon’s is WLWLW. Across 19 meetings, Lyon have 7 wins, Brest 3 and there have been 9 draws. Lyon won the last meeting 2-1 on 18 Jan 2026.
Team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Home and away form
Brest at home
4 played · 1W · 1D · 2L
Goals per match: 2.0 scored · 1.5 conceded
Results in this sample
- 23 Oct 2026 · Nice · 1–2 (L)
- 10 Oct 2026 · Angers · 5–1 (W)
- 13 Sept 2026 · Paris Saint-Germain · 0–1 (L)
- 29 Aug 2026 · Toulouse · 2–2 (D)
Lyon away
4 played · 1W · 1D · 2L
Goals per match: 0.8 scored · 1.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 26 Oct 2026 · Paris Saint-Germain · 0–2 (L)
- 9 Oct 2026 · Lens · 1–2 (L)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Paris FC · 0–0 (D)
- 22 Aug 2026 · Toulouse · 2–0 (W)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Brest vs Lyon: attack and defence ratings
Published pre-match goal probabilities
- Over 2.5 goals
- 56.5%Under 43.5%
- Both teams score
- 59.7%No 40.3%
- Predicted goals
- 1.37 – 1.57Total 2.95 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 21% · 25%Brest · Lyon
Most likely scores
1–1 is the most likely single score (11.8%), but more scorelines end in Lyon winning, so that is the most likely result (41.7%).
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 79.7% | 20.3% |
| 2.5 | 56.5% | 43.5% |
| 3.5 | 34.1% | 65.9% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Brest to score 1.37 goals and Lyon 1.57. Its ratings have Brest scoring at 1.09 times the model's Ligue 1 average and conceding at 1.03 times, against 1.25 and 0.84 for Lyon. Full methodology.
Questions about Brest vs Lyon
What was the Brest vs Lyon result?
Brest 2–0 Lyon at full time. Scores cover regular time only.
What was our pre-match prediction for Brest vs Lyon?
The fixed model record stored at 2026-11-07T14:52:06.821132+00:00, before kickoff, gave Brest 32.9%, a draw 25.6% and Lyon 41.5%. Probabilities are not guarantees.
What were the published pre-match expected goals for Brest vs Lyon?
The forecast published at 2026-11-08T12:05:44.971196+00:00 estimated 1.37 goals for Brest and 1.57 for Lyon (2.95 total). These are model expectations, not post-match shot-based xG. The most likely published score was 1–1 (11.8%).
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-08
- Matches used
- 4,191
- Model version
- dc-v4-c38410d45f85
- Data source
- Finished Ligue 1 scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
Explore how upcoming results change the Ligue 1 season outlook →