Ligue 1 · Gameweek 10 · Archived pre-match analysis
Toulouse 3–1 Strasbourg
Full time
Forecast published
Published model: Toulouse 39.9%
Ligue 1 online record: 20 of 36 most likely results correct (56%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 17/36 (47%). See every prediction ›
Result vs our prediction
Before kickoff, the published model gave Toulouse a 39.9% probability. The highest-probability outcome was Toulouse. The result matched that outcome. The final score was outside the five most likely published scorelines.
Snapshot recorded 6 Nov 2026, 17:06 UTC. One match cannot establish model accuracy; see the full model record.
Prediction used in our model record
Recorded before kickoff and never edited. This fixed snapshot is what the model record scores.
Pre-match context
Saved before kickoff; not rewritten after the result.
Toulouse are 12th in Ligue 1 with 10 points, while Strasbourg are 13th with 10 points. Toulouse’s recent form is LDWDW, compared with Strasbourg’s WLLLL. Strasbourg lead the head-to-head record with 10 wins from 18 meetings, although Toulouse won the last meeting 2-1 on 3 May 2026. Toulouse have one win from four at home, while Strasbourg have one win from five away.
Team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Home and away form
Toulouse at home
4 played · 1W · 1D · 2L
Goals per match: 0.8 scored · 1.3 conceded
Results in this sample
- 25 Oct 2026 · Troyes · 0–0 (D)
- 19 Sept 2026 · Le Havre · 3–2 (W)
- 3 Sept 2026 · Lille · 0–1 (L)
- 22 Aug 2026 · Lyon · 0–2 (L)
Strasbourg away
5 played · 1W · 0D · 4L
Goals per match: 1.6 scored · 2.6 conceded
Results in this sample
- 25 Oct 2026 · Rennes · 0–3 (L)
- 11 Oct 2026 · Nice · 1–2 (L)
- 19 Sept 2026 · Paris FC · 1–2 (L)
- 6 Sept 2026 · Troyes · 6–2 (W)
- 21 Aug 2026 · Marseille · 0–4 (L)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Toulouse vs Strasbourg: attack and defence ratings
Published pre-match goal probabilities
- Over 2.5 goals
- 56.0%Under 44.0%
- Both teams score
- 59.5%No 40.5%
- Predicted goals
- 1.53 – 1.40Total 2.93 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 25% · 22%Toulouse · Strasbourg
Most likely scores
1–1 is the most likely single score (12.0%), but more scorelines end in Toulouse winning, so that is the most likely result (39.9%).
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 79.5% | 20.5% |
| 2.5 | 56.0% | 44.0% |
| 3.5 | 33.6% | 66.4% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Toulouse to score 1.53 goals and Strasbourg 1.40. Its ratings have Toulouse scoring at 1.01 times the model's Ligue 1 average and conceding at 0.92 times, against 1.23 and 1.00 for Strasbourg. Full methodology.
Questions about Toulouse vs Strasbourg
What was the Toulouse vs Strasbourg result?
Toulouse 3–1 Strasbourg at full time. Scores cover regular time only.
What was our pre-match prediction for Toulouse vs Strasbourg?
The fixed model record stored at 2026-11-05T15:50:48.775654+00:00, before kickoff, gave Toulouse 39.9%, a draw 25.8% and Strasbourg 34.3%. Probabilities are not guarantees.
What were the published pre-match expected goals for Toulouse vs Strasbourg?
The forecast published at 2026-11-06T17:06:21.074331+00:00 estimated 1.53 goals for Toulouse and 1.40 for Strasbourg (2.93 total). These are model expectations, not post-match shot-based xG. The most likely published score was 1–1 (12.0%).
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-06
- Matches used
- 4,188
- Model version
- dc-v4-4c1d4ef2e623
- Data source
- Finished Ligue 1 scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
Explore how upcoming results change the Ligue 1 season outlook →