Ligue 1 · Gameweek 10 · Archived pre-match analysis
Lens 1–2 Marseille
Full time
Forecast published
Published model: Lens 45.6%
Ligue 1 online record: 20 of 36 most likely results correct (56%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 17/36 (47%). See every prediction ›
Result vs our prediction
Before kickoff, the published model gave Marseille a 30.1% probability. The highest-probability outcome was Lens. The result did not match that outcome. The final score ranked #3 in the five most likely published scorelines.
Snapshot recorded 8 Nov 2026, 16:21 UTC. One match cannot establish model accuracy; see the full model record.
Prediction used in our model record
Recorded before kickoff and never edited. This fixed snapshot is what the model record scores.
Pre-match context
Saved before kickoff; not rewritten after the result.
Lens are 9th on 13 points after 9 matches; Marseille are 6th on 15. In 24 Ligue 1 meetings since 2005-06, Lens won 10, Marseille won 9 and 5 were drawn. They last met on 24 Jan 2026: Marseille 3–1 Lens. In their last 5 league matches Lens won 3 and Marseille won 4.
Team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Home and away form
Lens at home
4 played · 3W · 0D · 1L
Goals per match: 2.3 scored · 1.3 conceded
Results in this sample
- 24 Oct 2026 · Paris FC · 2–1 (W)
- 9 Oct 2026 · Lyon · 2–1 (W)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Lorient · 0–1 (L)
- 22 Aug 2026 · Auxerre · 5–2 (W)
Marseille away
4 played · 2W · 0D · 2L
Goals per match: 1.8 scored · 1.3 conceded
Results in this sample
- 18 Oct 2026 · Angers · 5–2 (W)
- 11 Oct 2026 · Troyes · 2–0 (W)
- 11 Sept 2026 · Rennes · 0–1 (L)
- 30 Aug 2026 · Monaco · 0–2 (L)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Lens vs Marseille: attack and defence ratings
Published pre-match goal probabilities
- Over 2.5 goals
- 60.3%Under 39.7%
- Both teams score
- 62.1%No 37.9%
- Predicted goals
- 1.74 – 1.38Total 3.12 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 25% · 18%Lens · Marseille
Most likely scores
1–1 is the most likely single score (11.1%), but more scorelines end in Lens winning, so that is the most likely result (45.6%).
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 82.2% | 17.8% |
| 2.5 | 60.3% | 39.7% |
| 3.5 | 37.9% | 62.1% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Lens to score 1.74 goals and Marseille 1.38. Its ratings have Lens scoring at 1.25 times the model's Ligue 1 average and conceding at 0.80 times, against 1.40 and 0.92 for Marseille. Full methodology.
Questions about Lens vs Marseille
What was the Lens vs Marseille result?
Lens 1–2 Marseille at full time. Scores cover regular time only.
What was our pre-match prediction for Lens vs Marseille?
The fixed model record stored at 2026-11-07T19:08:27.525550+00:00, before kickoff, gave Lens 45.6%, a draw 24.5% and Marseille 29.9%. Probabilities are not guarantees.
What were the published pre-match expected goals for Lens vs Marseille?
The forecast published at 2026-11-08T16:21:57.974436+00:00 estimated 1.74 goals for Lens and 1.38 for Marseille (3.12 total). These are model expectations, not post-match shot-based xG. The most likely published score was 1–1 (11.1%).
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-08
- Matches used
- 4,191
- Model version
- dc-v4-13ce62a27502
- Data source
- Finished Ligue 1 scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
Explore how upcoming results change the Ligue 1 season outlook →