Ligue 1 · Gameweek 10 · Archived pre-match analysis
Paris Saint-Germain 1–0 Troyes
Full time
Forecast published
Published model: Paris Saint-Germain 83.4%
Ligue 1 online record: 20 of 36 most likely results correct (56%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 17/36 (47%). See every prediction ›
Result vs our prediction
Before kickoff, the published model gave Paris Saint-Germain a 83.4% probability. The highest-probability outcome was Paris Saint-Germain. The result matched that outcome. The final score was outside the five most likely published scorelines.
Snapshot recorded 7 Nov 2026, 19:08 UTC. One match cannot establish model accuracy; see the full model record.
Prediction used in our model record
Recorded before kickoff and never edited. This fixed snapshot is what the model record scores.
Pre-match context
Saved before kickoff; not rewritten after the result.
Paris Saint-Germain are 1st on 20 points after 9 matches; Troyes are 16th on 8. In 14 Ligue 1 meetings since 2005-06, Paris Saint-Germain won 11, Troyes won 0 and 3 were drawn. They last met on 7 May 2023: Troyes 1–3 Paris Saint-Germain. In their last 5 league matches Paris Saint-Germain won 5 and Troyes won 1.
Team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Home and away form
Paris Saint-Germain at home
3 played · 2W · 0D · 1L
Goals per match: 2.0 scored · 1.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 26 Oct 2026 · Lyon · 2–0 (W)
- 10 Oct 2026 · Le Mans · 3–1 (W)
- 4 Sept 2026 · Monaco · 1–2 (L)
Troyes away
4 played · 1W · 1D · 2L
Goals per match: 0.5 scored · 1.3 conceded
Results in this sample
- 25 Oct 2026 · Toulouse · 0–0 (D)
- 19 Sept 2026 · Angers · 0–2 (L)
- 13 Sept 2026 · Lille · 0–2 (L)
- 29 Aug 2026 · Lorient · 2–1 (W)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Paris Saint-Germain vs Troyes: attack and defence ratings
Published pre-match goal probabilities
- Over 2.5 goals
- 71.2%Under 28.9%
- Both teams score
- 46.9%No 53.1%
- Predicted goals
- 3.01 – 0.67Total 3.68 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 51% · 5%Paris Saint-Germain · Troyes
Most likely scores
No single score is likely: even the most likely, 3–0, happens only 11.4% of the time.
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 88.5% | 11.5% |
| 2.5 | 71.2% | 28.9% |
| 3.5 | 50.2% | 49.8% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Paris Saint-Germain to score 3.01 goals and Troyes 0.67. Its ratings have Paris Saint-Germain scoring at 1.69 times the model's Ligue 1 average and conceding at 0.70 times, against 0.79 and 1.17 for Troyes. Full methodology.
Questions about Paris Saint-Germain vs Troyes
What was the Paris Saint-Germain vs Troyes result?
Paris Saint-Germain 1–0 Troyes at full time. Scores cover regular time only.
What was our pre-match prediction for Paris Saint-Germain vs Troyes?
The fixed model record stored at 2026-11-06T17:06:21.074331+00:00, before kickoff, gave Paris Saint-Germain 83.4%, a draw 11.4% and Troyes 5.2%. Probabilities are not guarantees.
What were the published pre-match expected goals for Paris Saint-Germain vs Troyes?
The forecast published at 2026-11-07T19:08:27.525550+00:00 estimated 3.01 goals for Paris Saint-Germain and 0.67 for Troyes (3.68 total). These are model expectations, not post-match shot-based xG. The most likely published score was 3–0 (11.4%).
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-07
- Matches used
- 4,189
- Model version
- dc-v4-80349faa987d
- Data source
- Finished Ligue 1 scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
Explore how upcoming results change the Ligue 1 season outlook →