Ligue 1 · Gameweek 10 · Archived pre-match analysis
Le Mans 1–1 Monaco
Full time
Forecast published
Published model: Monaco 50.3%
Ligue 1 online record: 20 of 36 most likely results correct (56%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 17/36 (47%). See every prediction ›
Result vs our prediction
Before kickoff, the published model gave Draw a 23.1% probability. The highest-probability outcome was Monaco. The result did not match that outcome. The final score ranked #1 in the five most likely published scorelines.
Snapshot recorded 8 Nov 2026, 12:05 UTC. One match cannot establish model accuracy; see the full model record.
Prediction used in our model record
Recorded before kickoff and never edited. This fixed snapshot is what the model record scores.
Pre-match context
Saved before kickoff; not rewritten after the result.
Le Mans are 17th on 7 points after 9 matches; Monaco are 7th on 15. In 10 Ligue 1 meetings since 2005-06, Le Mans won 1, Monaco won 6 and 3 were drawn. They last met on 27 Apr 2010: Monaco 1–1 Le Mans. In their last 5 league matches Le Mans won 1 and Monaco won 1.
Team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Home and away form
Le Mans at home
4 played · 1W · 2D · 1L
Goals per match: 1.5 scored · 2.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 16 Oct 2026 · Toulouse · 0–3 (L)
- 19 Sept 2026 · Lorient · 2–1 (W)
- 13 Sept 2026 · Lens · 2–2 (D)
- 22 Aug 2026 · Brest · 2–2 (D)
Monaco away
5 played · 2W · 1D · 2L
Goals per match: 1.0 scored · 1.2 conceded
Results in this sample
- 1 Nov 2026 · Paris FC · 1–3 (L)
- 18 Oct 2026 · Lorient · 0–1 (L)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Strasbourg · 1–1 (D)
- 4 Sept 2026 · Paris Saint-Germain · 2–1 (W)
- 23 Aug 2026 · Le Havre · 1–0 (W)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Le Mans vs Monaco: attack and defence ratings
Published pre-match goal probabilities
- Over 2.5 goals
- 63.0%Under 37.0%
- Both teams score
- 63.3%No 36.7%
- Predicted goals
- 1.34 – 1.91Total 3.25 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 15% · 26%Le Mans · Monaco
Most likely scores
1–1 is the most likely single score (10.3%), but more scorelines end in Monaco winning, so that is the most likely result (50.3%).
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 83.9% | 16.1% |
| 2.5 | 63.0% | 37.0% |
| 3.5 | 40.9% | 59.1% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Le Mans to score 1.34 goals and Monaco 1.91. Its ratings have Le Mans scoring at 0.96 times the model's Ligue 1 average and conceding at 1.19 times, against 1.30 and 0.93 for Monaco. Full methodology.
Questions about Le Mans vs Monaco
What was the Le Mans vs Monaco result?
Le Mans 1–1 Monaco at full time. Scores cover regular time only.
What was our pre-match prediction for Le Mans vs Monaco?
The fixed model record stored at 2026-11-07T14:52:06.821132+00:00, before kickoff, gave Le Mans 26.6%, a draw 23.4% and Monaco 50.0%. Probabilities are not guarantees.
What were the published pre-match expected goals for Le Mans vs Monaco?
The forecast published at 2026-11-08T12:05:44.971196+00:00 estimated 1.34 goals for Le Mans and 1.91 for Monaco (3.25 total). These are model expectations, not post-match shot-based xG. The most likely published score was 1–1 (10.3%).
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-08
- Matches used
- 4,191
- Model version
- dc-v4-c38410d45f85
- Data source
- Finished Ligue 1 scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
Explore how upcoming results change the Ligue 1 season outlook →