Ligue 1 · Gameweek 10 · Archived pre-match analysis
Auxerre 0–1 Paris FC
Full time
Forecast published
Published model: Paris FC 41.5%
Ligue 1 online record: 20 of 36 most likely results correct (56%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 17/36 (47%). See every prediction ›
Result vs our prediction
Before kickoff, the published model gave Paris FC a 41.5% probability. The highest-probability outcome was Paris FC. The result matched that outcome. The final score ranked #3 in the five most likely published scorelines.
Snapshot recorded 7 Nov 2026, 14:52 UTC. One match cannot establish model accuracy; see the full model record.
Prediction used in our model record
Recorded before kickoff and never edited. This fixed snapshot is what the model record scores.
Pre-match context
Saved before kickoff; not rewritten after the result.
Auxerre are 14th on 10 points after 9 matches; Paris FC are 4th on 17. In 2 Ligue 1 meetings since 2025-26, Auxerre won 0, Paris FC won 0 and 2 were drawn. They last met on 8 Feb 2026: Auxerre 0–0 Paris FC. In their last 5 league matches Auxerre won 2 and Paris FC won 3.
Team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Home and away form
Auxerre at home
4 played · 2W · 1D · 1L
Goals per match: 1.3 scored · 1.3 conceded
Results in this sample
- 25 Oct 2026 · Le Mans · 1–1 (D)
- 20 Sept 2026 · Brest · 2–1 (W)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Nice · 1–0 (W)
- 29 Aug 2026 · Angers · 1–3 (L)
Paris FC away
4 played · 1W · 1D · 2L
Goals per match: 1.0 scored · 1.3 conceded
Results in this sample
- 24 Oct 2026 · Lens · 1–2 (L)
- 10 Oct 2026 · Lorient · 0–1 (L)
- 6 Sept 2026 · Marseille · 3–2 (W)
- 22 Aug 2026 · Troyes · 0–0 (D)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Auxerre vs Paris FC: attack and defence ratings
Published pre-match goal probabilities
- Over 2.5 goals
- 51.7%Under 48.3%
- Both teams score
- 56.0%No 44.0%
- Predicted goals
- 1.27 – 1.48Total 2.74 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 23% · 28%Auxerre · Paris FC
Most likely scores
1–1 is the most likely single score (12.7%), but more scorelines end in Paris FC winning, so that is the most likely result (41.5%).
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 76.5% | 23.5% |
| 2.5 | 51.7% | 48.3% |
| 3.5 | 29.6% | 70.4% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Recent meetings
Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Auxerre to score 1.27 goals and Paris FC 1.48. Its ratings have Auxerre scoring at 0.93 times the model's Ligue 1 average and conceding at 1.06 times, against 1.13 and 0.90 for Paris FC. Full methodology.
Questions about Auxerre vs Paris FC
What was the Auxerre vs Paris FC result?
Auxerre 0–1 Paris FC at full time. Scores cover regular time only.
What was our pre-match prediction for Auxerre vs Paris FC?
The fixed model record stored at 2026-11-06T17:06:21.074331+00:00, before kickoff, gave Auxerre 31.8%, a draw 26.6% and Paris FC 41.6%. Probabilities are not guarantees.
What were the published pre-match expected goals for Auxerre vs Paris FC?
The forecast published at 2026-11-07T14:52:06.821132+00:00 estimated 1.27 goals for Auxerre and 1.48 for Paris FC (2.74 total). These are model expectations, not post-match shot-based xG. The most likely published score was 1–1 (12.7%).
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-07
- Matches used
- 4,189
- Model version
- dc-v4-c591e6eb1190
- Data source
- Finished Ligue 1 scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
Explore how upcoming results change the Ligue 1 season outlook →