Ligue 1 · Gameweek 10 · Archived pre-match analysis
Angers 0–2 Nice
Full time
Forecast published
Published model: Nice 42.7%
Ligue 1 online record: 20 of 36 most likely results correct (56%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 17/36 (47%). See every prediction ›
Result vs our prediction
Before kickoff, the published model gave Nice a 42.7% probability. The highest-probability outcome was Nice. The result matched that outcome. The final score was outside the five most likely published scorelines.
Snapshot recorded 8 Nov 2026, 12:05 UTC. One match cannot establish model accuracy; see the full model record.
Prediction used in our model record
Recorded before kickoff and never edited. This fixed snapshot is what the model record scores.
Pre-match context
Saved before kickoff; not rewritten after the result.
Angers are 15th on 8 points after 9 matches; Nice are 8th on 14. In 20 Ligue 1 meetings since 2015-16, Angers won 4, Nice won 10 and 6 were drawn. They last met on 14 Mar 2026: Angers 0–2 Nice. In their last 5 league matches Angers won 1 and Nice won 4.
Team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Home and away form
Angers at home
5 played · 1W · 1D · 3L
Goals per match: 1.0 scored · 1.8 conceded
Results in this sample
- 25 Oct 2026 · Lorient · 0–0 (D)
- 18 Oct 2026 · Marseille · 2–5 (L)
- 19 Sept 2026 · Troyes · 2–0 (W)
- 6 Sept 2026 · Rennes · 1–2 (L)
- 23 Aug 2026 · Lille · 0–2 (L)
Nice away
4 played · 1W · 0D · 3L
Goals per match: 0.8 scored · 1.8 conceded
Results in this sample
- 23 Oct 2026 · Brest · 2–1 (W)
- 18 Oct 2026 · Lyon · 1–2 (L)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Auxerre · 0–1 (L)
- 30 Aug 2026 · Paris FC · 0–3 (L)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Angers vs Nice: attack and defence ratings
Published pre-match goal probabilities
- Over 2.5 goals
- 42.5%Under 57.5%
- Both teams score
- 48.3%No 51.7%
- Predicted goals
- 1.05 – 1.33Total 2.38 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 26% · 35%Angers · Nice
Most likely scores
1–1 is the most likely single score (13.5%), but more scorelines end in Nice winning, so that is the most likely result (42.7%).
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 69.2% | 30.8% |
| 2.5 | 42.5% | 57.5% |
| 3.5 | 21.7% | 78.3% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Angers to score 1.05 goals and Nice 1.33. Its ratings have Angers scoring at 0.73 times the model's Ligue 1 average and conceding at 1.06 times, against 1.02 and 0.95 for Nice. Full methodology.
Questions about Angers vs Nice
What was the Angers vs Nice result?
Angers 0–2 Nice at full time. Scores cover regular time only.
What was our pre-match prediction for Angers vs Nice?
The fixed model record stored at 2026-11-07T14:52:06.821132+00:00, before kickoff, gave Angers 28.8%, a draw 28.8% and Nice 42.4%. Probabilities are not guarantees.
What were the published pre-match expected goals for Angers vs Nice?
The forecast published at 2026-11-08T12:05:44.971196+00:00 estimated 1.05 goals for Angers and 1.33 for Nice (2.38 total). These are model expectations, not post-match shot-based xG. The most likely published score was 1–1 (13.5%).
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-08
- Matches used
- 4,191
- Model version
- dc-v4-c38410d45f85
- Data source
- Finished Ligue 1 scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
Explore how upcoming results change the Ligue 1 season outlook →