Ligue 1 · Gameweek 10 · Archived pre-match analysis
Rennes 1–2 Lille
Full time
Forecast published
Published model: Rennes 37.2%
Ligue 1 online record: 20 of 36 most likely results correct (56%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 17/36 (47%). See every prediction ›
Result vs our prediction
Before kickoff, the published model gave Lille a 36.4% probability. The highest-probability outcome was Rennes. The result did not match that outcome. The final score ranked #3 in the five most likely published scorelines.
Snapshot recorded 8 Nov 2026, 12:05 UTC. One match cannot establish model accuracy; see the full model record.
Prediction used in our model record
Recorded before kickoff and never edited. This fixed snapshot is what the model record scores.
Pre-match context
Saved before kickoff; not rewritten after the result.
Rennes are fifth in Ligue 1 with 16 points, while Lille are third with 18 points. Rennes’ recent form is LWLWL, compared with Lille’s WDDWL. Lille lead the head-to-head record with 17 wins to Rennes’ 8 across 42 meetings, including a 2-1 win on 15 Mar 2026. Rennes are unbeaten at home with 4 wins and 1 draw, while Lille have 2 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss away.
Team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Home and away form
Rennes at home
5 played · 4W · 1D · 0L
Goals per match: 2.6 scored · 1.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 25 Oct 2026 · Strasbourg · 3–0 (W)
- 11 Oct 2026 · Auxerre · 4–1 (W)
- 11 Sept 2026 · Marseille · 1–0 (W)
- 30 Aug 2026 · Le Mans · 3–2 (W)
- 23 Aug 2026 · Paris Saint-Germain · 2–2 (D)
Lille away
4 played · 2W · 1D · 1L
Goals per match: 1.3 scored · 0.8 conceded
Results in this sample
- 25 Oct 2026 · Monaco · 1–1 (D)
- 20 Sept 2026 · Nice · 1–2 (L)
- 3 Sept 2026 · Toulouse · 1–0 (W)
- 23 Aug 2026 · Angers · 2–0 (W)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Rennes vs Lille: attack and defence ratings
Published pre-match goal probabilities
- Over 2.5 goals
- 52.6%Under 47.4%
- Both teams score
- 56.9%No 43.1%
- Predicted goals
- 1.40 – 1.38Total 2.78 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 25% · 25%Rennes · Lille
Most likely scores
1–1 is the most likely single score (12.5%), but more scorelines end in Rennes winning, so that is the most likely result (37.2%).
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 77.1% | 22.9% |
| 2.5 | 52.6% | 47.4% |
| 3.5 | 30.4% | 69.6% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Rennes to score 1.40 goals and Lille 1.38. Its ratings have Rennes scoring at 1.32 times the model's Ligue 1 average and conceding at 1.03 times, against 1.09 and 0.70 for Lille. Full methodology.
Questions about Rennes vs Lille
What was the Rennes vs Lille result?
Rennes 1–2 Lille at full time. Scores cover regular time only.
What was our pre-match prediction for Rennes vs Lille?
The fixed model record stored at 2026-11-07T10:05:49.077867+00:00, before kickoff, gave Rennes 37.2%, a draw 26.7% and Lille 36.2%. Probabilities are not guarantees.
What were the published pre-match expected goals for Rennes vs Lille?
The forecast published at 2026-11-08T12:05:44.971196+00:00 estimated 1.40 goals for Rennes and 1.38 for Lille (2.78 total). These are model expectations, not post-match shot-based xG. The most likely published score was 1–1 (12.5%).
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-08
- Matches used
- 4,191
- Model version
- dc-v4-c38410d45f85
- Data source
- Finished Ligue 1 scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
Explore how upcoming results change the Ligue 1 season outlook →