Ligue 1 · Gameweek 10 · Archived pre-match analysis
Le Havre 0–2 Lorient
Full time
Forecast published
Published model: Lorient 37.4%
Ligue 1 online record: 20 of 36 most likely results correct (56%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 17/36 (47%). See every prediction ›
Result vs our prediction
Before kickoff, the published model gave Lorient a 37.4% probability. The highest-probability outcome was Lorient. The result matched that outcome. The final score was outside the five most likely published scorelines.
Snapshot recorded 8 Nov 2026, 12:05 UTC. One match cannot establish model accuracy; see the full model record.
Prediction used in our model record
Recorded before kickoff and never edited. This fixed snapshot is what the model record scores.
Pre-match context
Saved before kickoff; not rewritten after the result.
Le Havre are 18th on 2 points after 9 matches; Lorient are 12th on 12. In 6 Ligue 1 meetings since 2008-09, Le Havre won 2, Lorient won 1 and 3 were drawn. They last met on 17 May 2026: Lorient 0–2 Le Havre. In their last 5 league matches Le Havre won 0 and Lorient won 2.
Team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Home and away form
Le Havre at home
5 played · 0W · 1D · 4L
Goals per match: 0.6 scored · 2.2 conceded
Results in this sample
- 30 Oct 2026 · Paris Saint-Germain · 1–5 (L)
- 18 Oct 2026 · Auxerre · 1–3 (L)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Angers · 0–0 (D)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Brest · 1–2 (L)
- 23 Aug 2026 · Monaco · 0–1 (L)
Lorient away
4 played · 1W · 2D · 1L
Goals per match: 0.5 scored · 0.5 conceded
Results in this sample
- 25 Oct 2026 · Angers · 0–0 (D)
- 19 Sept 2026 · Le Mans · 1–2 (L)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Lens · 1–0 (W)
- 22 Aug 2026 · Nice · 0–0 (D)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Le Havre vs Lorient: attack and defence ratings
Published pre-match goal probabilities
- Over 2.5 goals
- 44.3%Under 55.7%
- Both teams score
- 50.4%No 49.6%
- Predicted goals
- 1.19 – 1.26Total 2.45 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 28% · 30%Le Havre · Lorient
Most likely scores
1–1 is the most likely single score (13.5%), but more scorelines end in Lorient winning, so that is the most likely result (37.4%).
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 70.8% | 29.3% |
| 2.5 | 44.3% | 55.7% |
| 3.5 | 23.2% | 76.8% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Le Havre to score 1.19 goals and Lorient 1.26. Its ratings have Le Havre scoring at 0.83 times the model's Ligue 1 average and conceding at 1.09 times, against 0.94 and 0.96 for Lorient. Full methodology.
Questions about Le Havre vs Lorient
What was the Le Havre vs Lorient result?
Le Havre 0–2 Lorient at full time. Scores cover regular time only.
What was our pre-match prediction for Le Havre vs Lorient?
The fixed model record stored at 2026-11-07T14:52:06.821132+00:00, before kickoff, gave Le Havre 34.2%, a draw 28.7% and Lorient 37.2%. Probabilities are not guarantees.
What were the published pre-match expected goals for Le Havre vs Lorient?
The forecast published at 2026-11-08T12:05:44.971196+00:00 estimated 1.19 goals for Le Havre and 1.26 for Lorient (2.45 total). These are model expectations, not post-match shot-based xG. The most likely published score was 1–1 (13.5%).
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-08
- Matches used
- 4,191
- Model version
- dc-v4-c38410d45f85
- Data source
- Finished Ligue 1 scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
Explore how upcoming results change the Ligue 1 season outlook →