Championship · Gameweek 15 · Archived pre-match analysis
Watford 0–0 Middlesbrough
Full time
Forecast published
Published model: Middlesbrough 46.1%
Championship online record: 28 of 61 most likely results correct (46%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 30/61 (49%). Watford: 4 of 5. Middlesbrough: 2 of 5. See every prediction ›
Result vs our prediction
Before kickoff, the published model gave Draw a 25.8% probability. The highest-probability outcome was Middlesbrough. The result did not match that outcome. The final score was outside the five most likely published scorelines.
Snapshot recorded 7 Nov 2026, 14:50 UTC. One match cannot establish model accuracy; see the full model record.
Prediction used in our model record
Recorded before kickoff and never edited. This fixed snapshot is what the model record scores.
Pre-match context
Saved before kickoff; not rewritten after the result.
Watford are 20th in the Championship with 14 points, while Middlesbrough are third with 28 points. Watford’s recent form is WLLWL, compared with Middlesbrough’s LWWDW. Watford lead the head-to-head record with 11 wins from 22 meetings, but Middlesbrough won the last meeting 5-1 on 25 Apr 2026. At home, Watford have four wins from seven; Middlesbrough have three away wins from seven.
Team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Home and away form
Watford at home
5 played · 3W · 0D · 2L
Goals per match: 1.2 scored · 1.4 conceded
Results in this sample
- 3 Nov 2026 · Lincoln City · 1–0 (W)
- 17 Oct 2026 · Charlton Athletic · 2–0 (W)
- 10 Oct 2026 · Burnley · 0–4 (L)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Stoke City · 1–2 (L)
- 8 Sept 2026 · Preston North End · 2–1 (W)
Middlesbrough away
4 played · 2W · 1D · 1L
Goals per match: 2.5 scored · 1.8 conceded
Results in this sample
- 4 Nov 2026 · Wrexham · 0–2 (L)
- 23 Oct 2026 · Bolton Wanderers · 5–1 (W)
- 13 Oct 2026 · Stoke City · 3–2 (W)
- 19 Sept 2026 · Birmingham City · 2–2 (D)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Watford vs Middlesbrough: attack and defence ratings
Published pre-match goal probabilities
- Over 2.5 goals
- 50.3%Under 49.7%
- Both teams score
- 53.8%No 46.2%
- Predicted goals
- 1.15 – 1.54Total 2.68 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 21% · 32%Watford · Middlesbrough
Most likely scores
1–1 is the most likely single score (12.3%), but more scorelines end in Middlesbrough winning, so that is the most likely result (46.1%).
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 75.1% | 24.9% |
| 2.5 | 50.3% | 49.7% |
| 3.5 | 28.3% | 71.8% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Watford to score 1.15 goals and Middlesbrough 1.54. Its ratings have Watford scoring at 0.86 times the model's Championship average and conceding at 1.06 times, against 1.24 and 0.91 for Middlesbrough. Full methodology.
Questions about Watford vs Middlesbrough
What was the Watford vs Middlesbrough result?
Watford 0–0 Middlesbrough at full time. Scores cover regular time only.
What was our pre-match prediction for Watford vs Middlesbrough?
The fixed model record stored at 2026-11-06T12:57:50.777216+00:00, before kickoff, gave Watford 28.0%, a draw 25.8% and Middlesbrough 46.2%. Probabilities are not guarantees.
What were the published pre-match expected goals for Watford vs Middlesbrough?
The forecast published at 2026-11-07T14:50:46.532522+00:00 estimated 1.15 goals for Watford and 1.54 for Middlesbrough (2.68 total). These are model expectations, not post-match shot-based xG. The most likely published score was 1–1 (12.3%).
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-07
- Matches used
- 6,589
- Model version
- dc-v4-a8ea44e98a23
- Data source
- Finished Championship scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
Explore how upcoming results change the Championship season outlook →