Championship · Gameweek 15 · Archived pre-match analysis
Preston North End 1–0 Southampton
Full time
Forecast published
Published model: Southampton 55.3%
Championship online record: 28 of 61 most likely results correct (46%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 30/61 (49%). Preston North End: 3 of 5. Southampton: 1 of 5. See every prediction ›
Result vs our prediction
Before kickoff, the published model gave Preston North End a 21.8% probability. The highest-probability outcome was Southampton. The result did not match that outcome. The final score was outside the five most likely published scorelines.
Snapshot recorded 7 Nov 2026, 14:50 UTC. One match cannot establish model accuracy; see the full model record.
Prediction used in our model record
Recorded before kickoff and never edited. This fixed snapshot is what the model record scores.
Pre-match context
Saved before kickoff; not rewritten after the result.
Preston North End are 24th with 5 points, while Southampton are second with 28 points. Preston’s recent form is LDL LL, while Southampton’s is DWWDW. Across 12 meetings, both teams have won 4 times and there have been 4 draws; Southampton won the last meeting 3-1 on 2 May 2026. Preston have won 1 of 7 at home, while Southampton have won 2 of 7 away.
Team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Home and away form
Preston North End at home
4 played · 0W · 1D · 3L
Goals per match: 0.8 scored · 1.5 conceded
Results in this sample
- 3 Nov 2026 · Sheffield United · 2–3 (L)
- 24 Oct 2026 · West Bromwich Albion · 1–1 (D)
- 10 Oct 2026 · Millwall · 0–1 (L)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Lincoln City · 0–1 (L)
Southampton away
4 played · 2W · 1D · 1L
Goals per match: 1.5 scored · 1.3 conceded
Results in this sample
- 3 Nov 2026 · West Bromwich Albion · 1–1 (D)
- 24 Oct 2026 · West Ham · 3–2 (W)
- 14 Oct 2026 · Norwich City · 1–0 (W)
- 19 Sept 2026 · Wrexham · 1–2 (L)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Preston North End vs Southampton: attack and defence ratings
Published pre-match goal probabilities
- Over 2.5 goals
- 57.5%Under 42.5%
- Both teams score
- 57.0%No 43.0%
- Predicted goals
- 1.11 – 1.88Total 2.99 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 15% · 33%Preston North End · Southampton
Most likely scores
1–1 is the most likely single score (10.7%), but more scorelines end in Southampton winning, so that is the most likely result (55.3%).
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 80.2% | 19.8% |
| 2.5 | 57.5% | 42.5% |
| 3.5 | 35.1% | 64.9% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Preston North End to score 1.11 goals and Southampton 1.88. Its ratings have Preston North End scoring at 0.85 times the model's Championship average and conceding at 1.15 times, against 1.41 and 0.89 for Southampton. Full methodology.
Questions about Preston North End vs Southampton
What was the Preston North End vs Southampton result?
Preston North End 1–0 Southampton at full time. Scores cover regular time only.
What was our pre-match prediction for Preston North End vs Southampton?
The fixed model record stored at 2026-11-06T12:57:50.777216+00:00, before kickoff, gave Preston North End 21.8%, a draw 22.8% and Southampton 55.4%. Probabilities are not guarantees.
What were the published pre-match expected goals for Preston North End vs Southampton?
The forecast published at 2026-11-07T14:50:46.532522+00:00 estimated 1.11 goals for Preston North End and 1.88 for Southampton (2.99 total). These are model expectations, not post-match shot-based xG. The most likely published score was 1–1 (10.7%).
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-07
- Matches used
- 6,589
- Model version
- dc-v4-a8ea44e98a23
- Data source
- Finished Championship scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
Explore how upcoming results change the Championship season outlook →