Premier League · Gameweek 6
Coventry City vs Newcastle
Odds from leovegas. “Our fair odds” are the odds our model's chance implies, with no bookmaker margin. “Bookmaker chance” is the chance the odds imply once the margin is removed. The coloured chip is our chance minus the bookmaker chance, in percentage points. A gap is not a betting tip.
Our model makes Newcastle 56.6% favourites at Coventry City; the market has 44.3%. Our model is less bullish on Coventry City than the market.
Match preview
Coventry City are 18th on 3 points after 5 matches; Newcastle are 9th on 8. In their last 5 league matches Coventry City won 1 and Newcastle won 2.
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 51.0%Under 49.0%
- Both teams score
- 51.3%No 48.7%
- Expected goals
- 0.93 – 1.78Total 2.71
- Clean sheet
- 17% · 39%Coventry City · Newcastle
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over | Under | Fair over | Fair under |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 76.3% | 23.7% | 1.31 | 4.22 |
| 2.5 | 51.0% | 49.0% | 1.96 | 2.04 |
| 3.5 | 28.9% | 71.1% | 3.46 | 1.41 |
Regular time only. Expected goals are averages of modelled scorelines, not shot-based xG. Goal probabilities come from the same score grid as the result probabilities and have not been separately calibrated.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
How the probabilities are made
The probabilities are model estimates for a Coventry City home win, draw and Newcastle win, compared with market probabilities. The model does not use injuries. Its expected goals are 0.95 for Coventry City and 1.8 for Newcastle.
Questions about Coventry City vs Newcastle
Who is the favourite in Coventry City vs Newcastle?
Our model's most likely result is Newcastle win at 56.6%. Full probabilities: Coventry City 18.5%, draw 24.9%, Newcastle 56.6%. De-vigged market odds give 44.3%.
What is the most likely score in Coventry City vs Newcastle?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 11.9%. The model expects 0.93 goals for Coventry City and 1.78 for Newcastle.
Will Coventry City vs Newcastle have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 51.0% and both teams to score 51.3%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. A gap between the model and the market is not evidence of a betting edge. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-05
- Matches used
- 4540
- Odds checked
- 5 Oct 2026, 01:57 UTC
- Model version
- dc-v4-f7f29581a715
- Data source
- Odds snapshots and finished Premier League scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.