Premier League · Gameweek 11
Newcastle vs Arsenal Prediction
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Forecast published
Model: Arsenal 51.7%
Premier League online record: 26 of 50 most likely results correct (52%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 24/50 (48%). Newcastle: 1 of 5. Arsenal: 5 of 5. See every prediction ›
Newcastle vs Arsenal: prediction analysis
Newcastle are 12th with 12 points after 10 matches, while Arsenal lead the Premier League with 27 points. Newcastle’s recent form is DLWLL, compared with Arsenal’s WWWWW. Arsenal have won 26 of 38 meetings, and the last meeting ended Arsenal 1-0 Newcastle on 25 Apr 2026. Newcastle have won 1 of 5 at home; Arsenal have won 4 of 5 away.
Team news
Newcastle
- Out
- Joelinton (injured), Jaouen (injured)
- In form
- Harvey Barnes 1 goal
Arsenal
- Out
- Saka (injured), Dowman (suspended)
- In form
- Declan Rice 3 assists · Gabriel dos Santos Magalhães 1 goal
Squad status from Fantasy Premier League, checked 12 Nov 2026, 04:19 UTC. Line-ups not confirmed; assists follow FPL scoring. The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Home and away form
Newcastle at home
5 played · 1W · 2D · 2L
Goals per match: 1.2 scored · 1.4 conceded
Results in this sample
- 2 Nov 2026 · Everton · 0–1 (L)
- 17 Oct 2026 · Aston Villa · 0–1 (L)
- 19 Sept 2026 · Hull City · 2–1 (W)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Bournemouth · 2–2 (D)
- 23 Aug 2026 · Liverpool · 2–2 (D)
Arsenal away
5 played · 4W · 0D · 1L
Goals per match: 1.0 scored · 0.6 conceded
Results in this sample
- 1 Nov 2026 · Liverpool · 1–0 (W)
- 18 Oct 2026 · Nottingham Forest · 1–0 (W)
- 19 Sept 2026 · Brighton · 0–3 (L)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Sunderland · 2–0 (W)
- 31 Aug 2026 · Aston Villa · 1–0 (W)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Newcastle vs Arsenal: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 50.0%Under 50.0%
- Both teams score
- 52.2%No 47.8%
- Predicted goals
- 1.02 – 1.66Total 2.67 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 19% · 36%Newcastle · Arsenal
Most likely scores
1–1 is the most likely single score (12.2%), but more scorelines end in Arsenal winning, so that is the most likely result (51.7%).
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 75.2% | 24.8% |
| 2.5 | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| 3.5 | 28.0% | 72.0% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Newcastle to score 1.02 goals and Arsenal 1.66. Its ratings have Newcastle scoring at 1.17 times the model's Premier League average and conceding at 0.98 times, against 1.35 and 0.57 for Arsenal. Full methodology.
Questions about Newcastle vs Arsenal
Who is the favourite in Newcastle vs Arsenal?
Our model's most likely result is Arsenal win at 51.7%. Full probabilities: Newcastle 22.6%, draw 25.6%, Arsenal 51.7%.
What is the most likely score in Newcastle vs Arsenal?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 12.2%. The model expects 1.02 goals for Newcastle and 1.66 for Arsenal.
Will Newcastle vs Arsenal have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 50.0% and both teams to score 52.2%.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-12
- Matches used
- 4,550
- Model version
- dc-v4-a868463ab9b9
- Data source
- Finished Premier League scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
Explore how upcoming results change the Premier League season outlook →