Premier League · Gameweek 11
Coventry City vs Crystal Palace Prediction
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Forecast published
Model: Crystal Palace 38.1%
Premier League online record: 26 of 50 most likely results correct (52%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 24/50 (48%). Coventry City: 3 of 5. Crystal Palace: 5 of 5. See every prediction ›
Coventry City vs Crystal Palace: prediction analysis
Coventry City are 17th in the Premier League with 9 points, while Crystal Palace are 20th with 7 points. Coventry City’s recent form is LWLLW, compared with Crystal Palace’s LLLLW. Coventry City have won 2 and lost 3 of 5 at home, while Crystal Palace have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of 5 away.
Team news
Coventry City
- Out
- Amenda (injured), Eccles (injured), Woolfenden (injured), Wright (injured)
- Doubtful
- Thomas (50%), Onyeka (50%)
- In form
- Jay Dasilva 1 assist · Milan van Ewijk 1 assist
Crystal Palace
- Out
- Tomiyasu (injured), Mateta (suspended), Chadi Riad (injured), Sarr (injured)
- Doubtful
- Strand Larsen (75%)
- In form
- Adam Wharton 1 assist · Daichi Kamada 1 goal
Squad status from Fantasy Premier League, checked 12 Nov 2026, 00:04 UTC. Line-ups not confirmed; assists follow FPL scoring. The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Home and away form
Coventry City at home
5 played · 2W · 0D · 3L
Goals per match: 1.4 scored · 1.8 conceded
Results in this sample
- 31 Oct 2026 · Sunderland · 3–1 (W)
- 24 Oct 2026 · Fulham · 0–1 (L)
- 12 Oct 2026 · Newcastle · 4–1 (W)
- 13 Sept 2026 · Brighton · 0–5 (L)
- 29 Aug 2026 · Hull City · 0–1 (L)
Crystal Palace away
5 played · 1W · 1D · 3L
Goals per match: 0.6 scored · 2.2 conceded
Results in this sample
- 31 Oct 2026 · Tottenham · 0–2 (L)
- 18 Oct 2026 · Brighton · 0–5 (L)
- 20 Sept 2026 · Leeds United · 0–0 (D)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Fulham · 3–2 (W)
- 22 Aug 2026 · Everton · 0–2 (L)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Coventry City vs Crystal Palace: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 52.0%Under 48.0%
- Both teams score
- 56.6%No 43.4%
- Predicted goals
- 1.35 – 1.41Total 2.76 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 24% · 26%Coventry City · Crystal Palace
Most likely scores
1–1 is the most likely single score (12.7%), but more scorelines end in Crystal Palace winning, so that is the most likely result (38.1%).
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 76.8% | 23.2% |
| 2.5 | 52.0% | 48.0% |
| 3.5 | 29.9% | 70.1% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Coventry City to score 1.35 goals and Crystal Palace 1.41. Coventry City are newly promoted with 10 matches played, so their rating leans on a promoted-club prior and is less certain. Full methodology.
Questions about Coventry City vs Crystal Palace
Who is the favourite in Coventry City vs Crystal Palace?
Our model's most likely result is Crystal Palace win at 38.1%. Full probabilities: Coventry City 35.2%, draw 26.7%, Crystal Palace 38.1%.
What is the most likely score in Coventry City vs Crystal Palace?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 12.7%. The model expects 1.35 goals for Coventry City and 1.41 for Crystal Palace.
Will Coventry City vs Crystal Palace have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 52.0% and both teams to score 56.6%.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-12
- Matches used
- 4,550
- Model version
- dc-v4-4077a67ebb9d
- Data source
- Finished Premier League scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
Explore how upcoming results change the Premier League season outlook →