Premier League · Gameweek 7
Manchester City vs Ipswich
Odds from leovegas. “Our fair odds” are the odds our model's chance implies, with no bookmaker margin. “Bookmaker chance” is the chance the odds imply once the margin is removed. The coloured chip is our chance minus the bookmaker chance, in percentage points. A gap is not a betting tip.
Our model makes Manchester City 84.9% favourites against Ipswich; the market has 76.9%. Our model is more bullish on Manchester City than the market.
Match preview
Manchester City are 1st on 15 points after 5 matches; Ipswich are 11th on 6. In 2 Premier League meetings since 2024-25, Manchester City won 2, Ipswich won 0 and none were drawn. They last met on 19 Jan 2025: Ipswich 0–6 Manchester City. In their last 5 league matches Manchester City won 5 and Ipswich won 2.
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 76.1%Under 23.9%
- Both teams score
- 50.4%No 49.6%
- Expected goals
- 3.26 – 0.73Total 3.99
- Clean sheet
- 48% · 4%Manchester City · Ipswich
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over | Under | Fair over | Fair under |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 91.2% | 8.8% | 1.10 | 11.30 |
| 2.5 | 76.1% | 23.9% | 1.31 | 4.18 |
| 3.5 | 56.5% | 43.5% | 1.77 | 2.30 |
Regular time only. Expected goals are averages of modelled scorelines, not shot-based xG. Goal probabilities come from the same score grid as the result probabilities and have not been separately calibrated.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Recent meetings
How the probabilities are made
The probabilities compare the model’s match outcome estimates with market probabilities. The model does not use injuries, and no confirmed team news is included. Manchester City have an expected 3.18 goals against Ipswich’s 0.75.
Questions about Manchester City vs Ipswich
Who is the favourite in Manchester City vs Ipswich?
Our model's most likely result is Manchester City win at 84.9%. Full probabilities: Manchester City 84.9%, draw 10.4%, Ipswich 4.7%. De-vigged market odds give 76.9%.
What is the most likely score in Manchester City vs Ipswich?
3–0 is the single most likely score at 10.6%. The model expects 3.26 goals for Manchester City and 0.73 for Ipswich.
Will Manchester City vs Ipswich have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 76.1% and both teams to score 50.4%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. A gap between the model and the market is not evidence of a betting edge. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-05
- Matches used
- 4540
- Odds checked
- 5 Oct 2026, 01:57 UTC
- Model version
- dc-v4-f7f29581a715
- Data source
- Odds snapshots and finished Premier League scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.