Premier League · Gameweek 11
Manchester City vs Fulham Prediction
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Forecast published
Model: Manchester City 65.4%
Premier League online record: 26 of 50 most likely results correct (52%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 24/50 (48%). Manchester City: 2 of 5. Fulham: 2 of 5. See every prediction ›
Manchester City vs Fulham: prediction analysis
Manchester City are 3rd on 21 points after 10 matches; Fulham are 15th on 10. In 30 Premier League meetings since 2005-06, Manchester City won 21, Fulham won 4 and 5 were drawn. They last met on 11 Feb 2026: Manchester City 3–0 Fulham. In their last 5 league matches Manchester City won 2 and Fulham won 2.
Team news
Manchester City
- Out
- Semenyo (injured)
- Doubtful
- Guéhi (75%), Gvardiol (75%)
- In form
- Erling Haaland 4 goals · Phil Foden 1 goal
Squad status from Fantasy Premier League, checked 12 Nov 2026, 00:04 UTC. Line-ups not confirmed; assists follow FPL scoring. The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Home and away form
Manchester City at home
5 played · 4W · 0D · 1L
Goals per match: 2.2 scored · 1.4 conceded
Results in this sample
- 31 Oct 2026 · Brighton · 0–1 (L)
- 17 Oct 2026 · Ipswich · 3–2 (W)
- 20 Sept 2026 · Sunderland · 5–3 (W)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Coventry City · 1–0 (W)
- 23 Aug 2026 · Bournemouth · 2–1 (W)
Fulham away
5 played · 1W · 2D · 2L
Goals per match: 0.6 scored · 0.8 conceded
Results in this sample
- 31 Oct 2026 · Aston Villa · 1–1 (D)
- 24 Oct 2026 · Coventry City · 1–0 (W)
- 10 Oct 2026 · Ipswich · 1–2 (L)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Liverpool · 0–0 (D)
- 30 Aug 2026 · Sunderland · 0–1 (L)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Manchester City vs Fulham: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 56.6%Under 43.4%
- Both teams score
- 51.0%No 49.0%
- Predicted goals
- 2.09 – 0.86Total 2.95 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 42% · 12%Manchester City · Fulham
Most likely scores
No single score is likely: even the most likely, 2–0, happens only 11.5% of the time.
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 79.8% | 20.2% |
| 2.5 | 56.6% | 43.4% |
| 3.5 | 34.2% | 65.8% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Manchester City to score 2.09 goals and Fulham 0.86. Its ratings have Manchester City scoring at 1.51 times the model's Premier League average and conceding at 0.73 times, against 0.94 and 0.91 for Fulham. Full methodology.
Questions about Manchester City vs Fulham
Who is the favourite in Manchester City vs Fulham?
Our model's most likely result is Manchester City win at 65.4%. Full probabilities: Manchester City 65.4%, draw 20.7%, Fulham 13.8%.
What is the most likely score in Manchester City vs Fulham?
2–0 is the single most likely score at 11.5%. The model expects 2.09 goals for Manchester City and 0.86 for Fulham.
Will Manchester City vs Fulham have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 56.6% and both teams to score 51.0%.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-12
- Matches used
- 4,550
- Model version
- dc-v4-4077a67ebb9d
- Data source
- Finished Premier League scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
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