Premier League · Gameweek 11
Tottenham vs Ipswich Prediction
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Forecast published
Model: Tottenham 60.3%
Premier League online record: 26 of 50 most likely results correct (52%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 24/50 (48%). Tottenham: 3 of 5. Ipswich: 2 of 5. See every prediction ›
Tottenham vs Ipswich: prediction analysis
Tottenham are 11th on 12 points after 10 matches; Ipswich are 14th on 11. In 2 Premier League meetings since 2024-25, Tottenham won 1, Ipswich won 1 and none were drawn. They last met on 22 Feb 2025: Ipswich 1–4 Tottenham. In their last 5 league matches Tottenham won 3 and Ipswich won 1.
Team news
Tottenham
- Out
- Sávio (injured), Bergvall (injured), Mudryk (injured), Odobert (injured), Xavi (injured)
- Doubtful
- Tel (75%)
- In form
- Jan Paul van Hecke 1 goal · Sandro Tonali 1 assist
Squad status from Fantasy Premier League, checked 12 Nov 2026, 00:04 UTC. Line-ups not confirmed; assists follow FPL scoring. The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Home and away form
Tottenham at home
5 played · 2W · 1D · 2L
Goals per match: 1.4 scored · 1.2 conceded
Results in this sample
- 31 Oct 2026 · Crystal Palace · 2–0 (W)
- 19 Oct 2026 · Coventry City · 3–1 (W)
- 19 Sept 2026 · Aston Villa · 2–3 (L)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Everton · 0–0 (D)
- 29 Aug 2026 · Newcastle · 0–2 (L)
Ipswich away
5 played · 1W · 1D · 3L
Goals per match: 1.8 scored · 2.6 conceded
Results in this sample
- 31 Oct 2026 · Hull City · 2–2 (D)
- 17 Oct 2026 · Manchester City · 2–3 (L)
- 19 Sept 2026 · Everton · 0–1 (L)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Crystal Palace · 3–2 (W)
- 30 Aug 2026 · Manchester United · 2–5 (L)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Tottenham vs Ipswich: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 64.8%Under 35.2%
- Both teams score
- 61.2%No 38.8%
- Predicted goals
- 2.18 – 1.15Total 3.34 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 32% · 11%Tottenham · Ipswich
Most likely scores
No single score is likely: even the most likely, 2–1, happens only 9.8% of the time.
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 85.0% | 15.0% |
| 2.5 | 64.8% | 35.2% |
| 3.5 | 42.8% | 57.2% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Recent meetings
Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Tottenham to score 2.18 goals and Ipswich 1.15. Ipswich are newly promoted with 10 matches played, so their rating leans on a promoted-club prior and is less certain. Full methodology.
Questions about Tottenham vs Ipswich
Who is the favourite in Tottenham vs Ipswich?
Our model's most likely result is Tottenham win at 60.3%. Full probabilities: Tottenham 60.3%, draw 20.9%, Ipswich 18.7%.
What is the most likely score in Tottenham vs Ipswich?
2–1 is the single most likely score at 9.8%. The model expects 2.18 goals for Tottenham and 1.15 for Ipswich.
Will Tottenham vs Ipswich have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 64.8% and both teams to score 61.2%.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-12
- Matches used
- 4,550
- Model version
- dc-v4-4077a67ebb9d
- Data source
- Finished Premier League scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
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