Premier League · Gameweek 7
Brentford vs Liverpool
Odds from leovegas. “Our fair odds” are the odds our model's chance implies, with no bookmaker margin. “Bookmaker chance” is the chance the odds imply once the margin is removed. The coloured chip is our chance minus the bookmaker chance, in percentage points. A gap is not a betting tip.
Our model makes Liverpool 40.5% favourites at Brentford; the market has 40.2%. Our model is less bullish on Brentford than the market.
Match preview
Brentford are 4th on 9 points after 5 matches; Liverpool are 6th on 9. In 10 Premier League meetings since 2021-22, Brentford won 2, Liverpool won 6 and 2 were drawn. They last met on 24 May 2026: Liverpool 1–1 Brentford. In their last 5 league matches Brentford won 2 and Liverpool won 2.
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 59.4%Under 40.6%
- Both teams score
- 62.5%No 37.5%
- Expected goals
- 1.46 – 1.62Total 3.08
- Clean sheet
- 20% · 23%Brentford · Liverpool
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over | Under | Fair over | Fair under |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 82.1% | 17.9% | 1.22 | 5.59 |
| 2.5 | 59.4% | 40.6% | 1.68 | 2.46 |
| 3.5 | 37.0% | 63.0% | 2.70 | 1.59 |
Regular time only. Expected goals are averages of modelled scorelines, not shot-based xG. Goal probabilities come from the same score grid as the result probabilities and have not been separately calibrated.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›How the probabilities are made
The probabilities compare modelled match outcomes with the market probabilities for Brentford, the draw and Liverpool. The model does not use injuries. Its expected goals are 1.49 for Brentford and 1.60 for Liverpool.
Questions about Brentford vs Liverpool
Who is the favourite in Brentford vs Liverpool?
Our model's most likely result is Liverpool win at 40.5%. Full probabilities: Brentford 33.9%, draw 25.6%, Liverpool 40.5%. De-vigged market odds give 40.2%.
What is the most likely score in Brentford vs Liverpool?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 11.8%. The model expects 1.46 goals for Brentford and 1.62 for Liverpool.
Will Brentford vs Liverpool have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 59.4% and both teams to score 62.5%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. A gap between the model and the market is not evidence of a betting edge. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-05
- Matches used
- 4540
- Odds checked
- 5 Oct 2026, 01:57 UTC
- Model version
- dc-v4-f7f29581a715
- Data source
- Odds snapshots and finished Premier League scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.