Premier League · Gameweek 11
Brentford vs Everton Prediction
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Forecast published
Model: Brentford 46.8%
Premier League online record: 26 of 50 most likely results correct (52%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 24/50 (48%). Brentford: 2 of 5. Everton: 2 of 5. See every prediction ›
Brentford vs Everton: prediction analysis
Brentford are 8th on 14 points after 10 matches; Everton are 6th on 16. In 10 Premier League meetings since 2021-22, Brentford won 3, Everton won 3 and 4 were drawn. They last met on 11 Apr 2026: Brentford 2–2 Everton. In their last 5 league matches Brentford won 1 and Everton won 2.
Team news
Brentford
- Out
- Thiago (suspended), Carvalho (injured), Henry (injured), Furo (injured), Milambo (injured)
- Doubtful
- Dasilva (25%)
- In form
- Igor Thiago Nascimento Rodrigues 1 goal, 3 assists · Kristoffer Ajer 1 goal
Squad status from Fantasy Premier League, checked 12 Nov 2026, 00:04 UTC. Line-ups not confirmed; assists follow FPL scoring. The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Home and away form
Brentford at home
5 played · 3W · 1D · 1L
Goals per match: 2.0 scored · 0.6 conceded
Results in this sample
- 31 Oct 2026 · Nottingham Forest · 2–0 (W)
- 17 Oct 2026 · Liverpool · 1–2 (L)
- 18 Sept 2026 · Chelsea · 3–0 (W)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Sunderland · 1–1 (D)
- 22 Aug 2026 · Tottenham · 3–0 (W)
Everton away
5 played · 1W · 3D · 1L
Goals per match: 0.8 scored · 1.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 2 Nov 2026 · Newcastle · 1–0 (W)
- 24 Oct 2026 · Arsenal · 0–2 (L)
- 11 Oct 2026 · Hull City · 2–2 (D)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Tottenham · 0–0 (D)
- 29 Aug 2026 · Bournemouth · 1–1 (D)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Brentford vs Everton: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 46.3%Under 53.7%
- Both teams score
- 50.7%No 49.3%
- Predicted goals
- 1.49 – 1.04Total 2.53 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 35% · 23%Brentford · Everton
Most likely scores
1–1 is the most likely single score (13.0%), but more scorelines end in Brentford winning, so that is the most likely result (46.8%).
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 72.4% | 27.6% |
| 2.5 | 46.3% | 53.7% |
| 3.5 | 24.8% | 75.2% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Brentford to score 1.49 goals and Everton 1.04. Its ratings have Brentford scoring at 1.15 times the model's Premier League average and conceding at 0.93 times, against 0.89 and 0.85 for Everton. Full methodology.
Questions about Brentford vs Everton
Who is the favourite in Brentford vs Everton?
Our model's most likely result is Brentford win at 46.8%. Full probabilities: Brentford 46.8%, draw 27.3%, Everton 25.9%.
What is the most likely score in Brentford vs Everton?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 13.0%. The model expects 1.49 goals for Brentford and 1.04 for Everton.
Will Brentford vs Everton have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 46.3% and both teams to score 50.7%.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-12
- Matches used
- 4,550
- Model version
- dc-v4-4077a67ebb9d
- Data source
- Finished Premier League scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
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