Premier League · Gameweek 11
Liverpool vs Manchester United Prediction
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Forecast published
Model: Liverpool 55.4%
Premier League online record: 26 of 50 most likely results correct (52%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 24/50 (48%). Liverpool: 4 of 5. Manchester United: 0 of 5. See every prediction ›
Liverpool vs Manchester United: prediction analysis
Liverpool are 4th on 18 points after 10 matches; Manchester United are 18th on 8. In 42 Premier League meetings since 2005-06, Liverpool won 13, Manchester United won 18 and 11 were drawn. They last met on 3 May 2026: Manchester United 3–2 Liverpool. In their last 5 league matches Liverpool won 3 and Manchester United won 0.
Team news
Liverpool
- Out
- Frimpong (injured), Bradley (injured), Ekitiké (injured), Jaros (injured), Leoni (injured)
- Doubtful
- Virgil (75%), Gravenberch (75%)
- In form
- Florian Wirtz 1 goal, 3 assists · Alexander Isak 3 goals
Manchester United
- Out
- Shaw (injured), Rashford (injured), Baleba (injured), Šeško (injured), Ugarte (injured)
- Doubtful
- Maguire (75%)
- In form
- Bruno Borges Fernandes 1 goal, 1 assist · Bryan Mbeumo 2 goals
Squad status from Fantasy Premier League, checked 12 Nov 2026, 04:19 UTC. Line-ups not confirmed; assists follow FPL scoring. The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Home and away form
Liverpool at home
5 played · 1W · 2D · 2L
Goals per match: 0.8 scored · 1.2 conceded
Results in this sample
- 1 Nov 2026 · Arsenal · 0–1 (L)
- 25 Oct 2026 · Brighton · 2–0 (W)
- 11 Oct 2026 · Manchester City · 0–3 (L)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Fulham · 0–0 (D)
- 29 Aug 2026 · Nottingham Forest · 2–2 (D)
Manchester United away
5 played · 0W · 3D · 2L
Goals per match: 0.8 scored · 1.6 conceded
Results in this sample
- 31 Oct 2026 · Chelsea · 0–2 (L)
- 18 Oct 2026 · Leeds United · 1–1 (D)
- 20 Sept 2026 · Fulham · 1–1 (D)
- 6 Sept 2026 · Everton · 2–2 (D)
- 22 Aug 2026 · Hull City · 0–2 (L)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Liverpool vs Manchester United: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 62.6%Under 37.4%
- Both teams score
- 61.4%No 38.6%
- Predicted goals
- 2.01 – 1.21Total 3.23 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 30% · 13%Liverpool · Manchester United
Most likely scores
1–1 is the most likely single score (10.2%), but more scorelines end in Liverpool winning, so that is the most likely result (55.4%).
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 83.7% | 16.3% |
| 2.5 | 62.6% | 37.4% |
| 3.5 | 40.4% | 59.6% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Liverpool to score 2.01 goals and Manchester United 1.21. Its ratings have Liverpool scoring at 1.36 times the model's Premier League average and conceding at 0.83 times, against 1.16 and 0.97 for Manchester United. Full methodology.
Questions about Liverpool vs Manchester United
Who is the favourite in Liverpool vs Manchester United?
Our model's most likely result is Liverpool win at 55.4%. Full probabilities: Liverpool 55.4%, draw 22.4%, Manchester United 22.1%.
What is the most likely score in Liverpool vs Manchester United?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 10.2%. The model expects 2.01 goals for Liverpool and 1.21 for Manchester United.
Will Liverpool vs Manchester United have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 62.6% and both teams to score 61.4%.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-12
- Matches used
- 4,550
- Model version
- dc-v4-a868463ab9b9
- Data source
- Finished Premier League scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
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