Premier League · Gameweek 7
Newcastle vs Aston Villa
Odds from leovegas. “Our fair odds” are the odds our model's chance implies, with no bookmaker margin. “Bookmaker chance” is the chance the odds imply once the margin is removed. The coloured chip is our chance minus the bookmaker chance, in percentage points. A gap is not a betting tip.
Our model makes Newcastle 44.6% favourites against Aston Villa; the market has 45.7%. Our model is less bullish on Newcastle than the market.
Match preview
Newcastle are 9th on 8 points after 5 matches; Aston Villa are 16th on 4. In 34 Premier League meetings since 2005-06, Newcastle won 14, Aston Villa won 10 and 10 were drawn. They last met on 25 Jan 2026: Newcastle 0–2 Aston Villa. In their last 5 league matches Newcastle won 2 and Aston Villa won 1.
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 59.6%Under 40.4%
- Both teams score
- 62.1%No 37.9%
- Expected goals
- 1.71 – 1.37Total 3.09
- Clean sheet
- 25% · 18%Newcastle · Aston Villa
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over | Under | Fair over | Fair under |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 82.2% | 17.8% | 1.22 | 5.62 |
| 2.5 | 59.6% | 40.4% | 1.68 | 2.47 |
| 3.5 | 37.2% | 62.8% | 2.69 | 1.59 |
Regular time only. Expected goals are averages of modelled scorelines, not shot-based xG. Goal probabilities come from the same score grid as the result probabilities and have not been separately calibrated.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›How the probabilities are made
The probabilities compare modelled home, draw and away outcomes with the market probabilities. The model does not use injuries. Its expected goals are 1.74 for Newcastle and 1.42 for Aston Villa.
Questions about Newcastle vs Aston Villa
Who is the favourite in Newcastle vs Aston Villa?
Our model's most likely result is Newcastle win at 44.6%. Full probabilities: Newcastle 44.6%, draw 25.3%, Aston Villa 30.1%. De-vigged market odds give 45.7%.
What is the most likely score in Newcastle vs Aston Villa?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 11.6%. The model expects 1.71 goals for Newcastle and 1.37 for Aston Villa.
Will Newcastle vs Aston Villa have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 59.6% and both teams to score 62.1%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. A gap between the model and the market is not evidence of a betting edge. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-05
- Matches used
- 4540
- Odds checked
- 5 Oct 2026, 01:57 UTC
- Model version
- dc-v4-f7f29581a715
- Data source
- Odds snapshots and finished Premier League scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.