Premier League · Gameweek 11
Aston Villa vs Sunderland Prediction
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Forecast published
Model: Aston Villa 52.2%
Premier League online record: 26 of 50 most likely results correct (52%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 24/50 (48%). Aston Villa: 0 of 5. Sunderland: 3 of 5. See every prediction ›
Aston Villa vs Sunderland: prediction analysis
Aston Villa are 10th on 13 points after 10 matches; Sunderland are 19th on 8. In 22 Premier League meetings since 2005-06, Aston Villa won 10, Sunderland won 4 and 8 were drawn. They last met on 19 Apr 2026: Aston Villa 4–3 Sunderland. In their last 5 league matches Aston Villa won 2 and Sunderland won 1.
Team news
Sunderland
- Out
- Ballard (injured), Diarra (injured), Mundle (injured)
- Doubtful
- Xhaka (75%), Brobbey (75%)
- In form
- Enzo Le Fée 2 goals
Squad status from Fantasy Premier League, checked 12 Nov 2026, 04:19 UTC. Line-ups not confirmed; assists follow FPL scoring. The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Home and away form
Aston Villa at home
5 played · 1W · 2D · 2L
Goals per match: 1.2 scored · 1.4 conceded
Results in this sample
- 31 Oct 2026 · Fulham · 1–1 (D)
- 24 Oct 2026 · Manchester City · 2–1 (W)
- 10 Oct 2026 · Brentford · 2–2 (D)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Nottingham Forest · 1–2 (L)
- 31 Aug 2026 · Arsenal · 0–1 (L)
Sunderland away
5 played · 0W · 1D · 4L
Goals per match: 1.2 scored · 2.6 conceded
Results in this sample
- 31 Oct 2026 · Coventry City · 1–3 (L)
- 18 Oct 2026 · Bournemouth · 0–2 (L)
- 20 Sept 2026 · Manchester City · 3–5 (L)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Brentford · 1–1 (D)
- 22 Aug 2026 · Ipswich · 1–2 (L)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Aston Villa vs Sunderland: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 48.9%Under 51.1%
- Both teams score
- 51.2%No 48.8%
- Predicted goals
- 1.65 – 0.99Total 2.63 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 37% · 19%Aston Villa · Sunderland
Most likely scores
1–1 is the most likely single score (12.3%), but more scorelines end in Aston Villa winning, so that is the most likely result (52.2%).
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 74.5% | 25.5% |
| 2.5 | 48.9% | 51.1% |
| 3.5 | 27.1% | 72.9% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Aston Villa to score 1.65 goals and Sunderland 0.99. Its ratings have Aston Villa scoring at 1.16 times the model's Premier League average and conceding at 0.94 times, against 0.83 and 0.94 for Sunderland. Full methodology.
Questions about Aston Villa vs Sunderland
Who is the favourite in Aston Villa vs Sunderland?
Our model's most likely result is Aston Villa win at 52.2%. Full probabilities: Aston Villa 52.2%, draw 25.7%, Sunderland 22.0%.
What is the most likely score in Aston Villa vs Sunderland?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 12.3%. The model expects 1.65 goals for Aston Villa and 0.99 for Sunderland.
Will Aston Villa vs Sunderland have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 48.9% and both teams to score 51.2%.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-12
- Matches used
- 4,550
- Model version
- dc-v4-a868463ab9b9
- Data source
- Finished Premier League scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
Explore how upcoming results change the Premier League season outlook →