Premier League · Gameweek 7
Bournemouth vs Sunderland
Odds from leovegas. “Our fair odds” are the odds our model's chance implies, with no bookmaker margin. “Bookmaker chance” is the chance the odds imply once the margin is removed. The coloured chip is our chance minus the bookmaker chance, in percentage points. A gap is not a betting tip.
Our model makes Bournemouth 46.3% favourites against Sunderland; the market has 47.0%. Our model is less bullish on Bournemouth than the market.
Match preview
Bournemouth are 17th on 3 points after 5 matches; Sunderland are 14th on 4. In 6 Premier League meetings since 2015-16, Bournemouth won 2, Sunderland won 2 and 2 were drawn. They last met on 28 Feb 2026: Bournemouth 1–1 Sunderland. In their last 5 league matches Bournemouth won 0 and Sunderland won 1.
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 48.5%Under 51.5%
- Both teams score
- 52.8%No 47.2%
- Expected goals
- 1.52 – 1.09Total 2.61
- Clean sheet
- 34% · 22%Bournemouth · Sunderland
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over | Under | Fair over | Fair under |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 74.5% | 25.5% | 1.34 | 3.92 |
| 2.5 | 48.5% | 51.5% | 2.06 | 1.94 |
| 3.5 | 26.6% | 73.3% | 3.75 | 1.36 |
Regular time only. Expected goals are averages of modelled scorelines, not shot-based xG. Goal probabilities come from the same score grid as the result probabilities and have not been separately calibrated.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›How the probabilities are made
The probabilities compare the model's home win, draw and away win estimates with the market probabilities. The model does not use injuries. It also gives expected goals of 1.55 for Bournemouth and 1.07 for Sunderland.
Questions about Bournemouth vs Sunderland
Who is the favourite in Bournemouth vs Sunderland?
Our model's most likely result is Bournemouth win at 46.3%. Full probabilities: Bournemouth 46.3%, draw 27.5%, Sunderland 26.1%. De-vigged market odds give 47.0%.
What is the most likely score in Bournemouth vs Sunderland?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 13.2%. The model expects 1.52 goals for Bournemouth and 1.09 for Sunderland.
Will Bournemouth vs Sunderland have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 48.5% and both teams to score 52.8%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. A gap between the model and the market is not evidence of a betting edge. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-05
- Matches used
- 4540
- Odds checked
- 5 Oct 2026, 01:57 UTC
- Model version
- dc-v4-f7f29581a715
- Data source
- Odds snapshots and finished Premier League scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.