Premier League · Gameweek 11
Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest Prediction
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Forecast published
Model: Bournemouth 46.0%
Premier League online record: 26 of 50 most likely results correct (52%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 24/50 (48%). Bournemouth: 4 of 5. Nottingham Forest: 3 of 5. See every prediction ›
Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest: prediction analysis
Bournemouth are 7th on 15 points after 10 matches; Nottingham Forest are 16th on 9. In 8 Premier League meetings since 2022-23, Bournemouth won 4, Nottingham Forest won 0 and 4 were drawn. They last met on 24 May 2026: Nottingham Forest 1–1 Bournemouth. In their last 5 league matches Bournemouth won 4 and Nottingham Forest won 1.
Team news
Bournemouth
- Out
- Sanchez (injured), Tóth.A (injured), J.Araujo (injured), Milosavljević (injured)
Nottingham Forest
- Out
- Dominguez (injured), Savona (injured)
- In form
- Neco Williams 1 goal
Squad status from Fantasy Premier League, checked 12 Nov 2026, 04:19 UTC. Line-ups not confirmed; assists follow FPL scoring. The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Home and away form
Bournemouth at home
5 played · 2W · 2D · 1L
Goals per match: 1.4 scored · 0.8 conceded
Results in this sample
- 31 Oct 2026 · Leeds United · 2–0 (W)
- 18 Oct 2026 · Sunderland · 2–0 (W)
- 20 Sept 2026 · Liverpool · 0–1 (L)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Brentford · 2–2 (D)
- 29 Aug 2026 · Everton · 1–1 (D)
Nottingham Forest away
5 played · 1W · 2D · 2L
Goals per match: 1.2 scored · 1.8 conceded
Results in this sample
- 31 Oct 2026 · Brentford · 0–2 (L)
- 23 Oct 2026 · Ipswich · 1–1 (D)
- 11 Oct 2026 · Crystal Palace · 1–3 (L)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Aston Villa · 2–1 (W)
- 29 Aug 2026 · Liverpool · 2–2 (D)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 50.6%Under 49.4%
- Both teams score
- 54.4%No 45.6%
- Predicted goals
- 1.55 – 1.15Total 2.70 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 32% · 21%Bournemouth · Nottingham Forest
Most likely scores
1–1 is the most likely single score (12.6%), but more scorelines end in Bournemouth winning, so that is the most likely result (46.0%).
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 75.7% | 24.3% |
| 2.5 | 50.6% | 49.4% |
| 3.5 | 28.6% | 71.5% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Bournemouth to score 1.55 goals and Nottingham Forest 1.15. Its ratings have Bournemouth scoring at 1.12 times the model's Premier League average and conceding at 0.94 times, against 0.97 and 0.91 for Nottingham Forest. Full methodology.
Questions about Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest
Who is the favourite in Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest?
Our model's most likely result is Bournemouth win at 46.0%. Full probabilities: Bournemouth 46.0%, draw 26.5%, Nottingham Forest 27.6%.
What is the most likely score in Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 12.6%. The model expects 1.55 goals for Bournemouth and 1.15 for Nottingham Forest.
Will Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 50.6% and both teams to score 54.4%.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-12
- Matches used
- 4,550
- Model version
- dc-v4-a868463ab9b9
- Data source
- Finished Premier League scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
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