Premier League · Gameweek 7
Leeds United vs Manchester United
Odds from betfair_ex_uk. “Our fair odds” are the odds our model's chance implies, with no bookmaker margin. “Bookmaker chance” is the chance the odds imply once the margin is removed. The coloured chip is our chance minus the bookmaker chance, in percentage points. A gap is not a betting tip.
Our model makes Manchester United 36.7% favourites at Leeds United; the market has 40.7%. Our model is more bullish on Leeds United than the market.
Match preview
Leeds United are 5th on 9 points after 5 matches; Manchester United are 12th on 5. In 8 Premier League meetings since 2020-21, Leeds United won 1, Manchester United won 4 and 3 were drawn. They last met on 13 Apr 2026: Manchester United 1–2 Leeds United. In their last 5 league matches Leeds United won 2 and Manchester United won 1.
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 53.1%Under 46.9%
- Both teams score
- 57.8%No 42.2%
- Expected goals
- 1.39 – 1.41Total 2.80
- Clean sheet
- 24% · 25%Leeds United · Manchester United
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over | Under | Fair over | Fair under |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 77.9% | 22.1% | 1.28 | 4.52 |
| 2.5 | 53.1% | 46.9% | 1.88 | 2.13 |
| 3.5 | 30.9% | 69.2% | 3.24 | 1.45 |
Regular time only. Expected goals are averages of modelled scorelines, not shot-based xG. Goal probabilities come from the same score grid as the result probabilities and have not been separately calibrated.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›How the probabilities are made
The probabilities were produced from the model’s match outcome estimates and compared with market probabilities. Leeds United lead at 38.4%, ahead of Manchester United at 33.7% and a draw at 27.9%. The model does not use injuries.
Questions about Leeds United vs Manchester United
Who is the favourite in Leeds United vs Manchester United?
Our model's most likely result is Manchester United win at 36.7%. Full probabilities: Leeds United 36.1%, draw 27.2%, Manchester United 36.7%. De-vigged market odds give 40.7%.
What is the most likely score in Leeds United vs Manchester United?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 12.9%. The model expects 1.39 goals for Leeds United and 1.41 for Manchester United.
Will Leeds United vs Manchester United have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 53.1% and both teams to score 57.8%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. A gap between the model and the market is not evidence of a betting edge. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-05
- Matches used
- 4540
- Odds checked
- 5 Oct 2026, 08:01 UTC
- Model version
- dc-v4-6affb982c6e9
- Data source
- Odds snapshots and finished Premier League scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.