Premier League · Gameweek 11
Chelsea vs Leeds United Prediction
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Forecast published
Model: Chelsea 50.0%
Premier League online record: 26 of 50 most likely results correct (52%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 24/50 (48%). Chelsea: 2 of 5. Leeds United: 3 of 5. See every prediction ›
Chelsea vs Leeds United: prediction analysis
Chelsea sit fifth in the Premier League with 16 points, while Leeds United are ninth with 14 points. Chelsea's recent form is LWLWW, compared with Leeds United's WLDDL. Across 8 meetings since 2020-21, Chelsea have 4 wins, Leeds United have 2 and there have been 2 draws. The last meeting ended 2-2 on 10 Feb 2026.
Team news
Chelsea
- Out
- Lacroix (injured), João Pedro (injured), Hato (injured), James (injured), Gittens (injured)
- Doubtful
- Acheampong (75%), Martinez (75%)
- In form
- Cole Palmer 1 goal, 2 assists · Morgan Rogers 2 goals · João Pedro Junqueira de Jesus 2 goals
Leeds United
- Out
- Mateo Joseph (injured)
- Doubtful
- Stach (50%), Gudmundsson (75%)
- In form
- Tarik Muharemović 1 assist
Squad status from Fantasy Premier League, checked 12 Nov 2026, 04:19 UTC. Line-ups not confirmed; assists follow FPL scoring. The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Home and away form
Chelsea at home
5 played · 3W · 1D · 1L
Goals per match: 2.6 scored · 1.6 conceded
Results in this sample
- 31 Oct 2026 · Manchester United · 2–0 (W)
- 24 Oct 2026 · Tottenham · 0–2 (L)
- 10 Oct 2026 · Bournemouth · 5–1 (W)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Hull City · 2–2 (D)
- 30 Aug 2026 · Brighton · 4–3 (W)
Leeds United away
5 played · 1W · 2D · 2L
Goals per match: 0.6 scored · 1.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 31 Oct 2026 · Bournemouth · 0–2 (L)
- 25 Oct 2026 · Sunderland · 0–0 (D)
- 10 Oct 2026 · Arsenal · 1–2 (L)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Brighton · 1–1 (D)
- 22 Aug 2026 · Nottingham Forest · 1–0 (W)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Chelsea vs Leeds United: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 53.0%Under 47.0%
- Both teams score
- 55.3%No 44.7%
- Predicted goals
- 1.68 – 1.11Total 2.80 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 33% · 19%Chelsea · Leeds United
Most likely scores
1–1 is the most likely single score (12.0%), but more scorelines end in Chelsea winning, so that is the most likely result (50.0%).
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 77.4% | 22.6% |
| 2.5 | 53.0% | 47.0% |
| 3.5 | 30.7% | 69.3% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Chelsea to score 1.68 goals and Leeds United 1.11. Its ratings have Chelsea scoring at 1.23 times the model's Premier League average and conceding at 0.94 times, against 0.95 and 0.91 for Leeds United. Full methodology.
Questions about Chelsea vs Leeds United
Who is the favourite in Chelsea vs Leeds United?
Our model's most likely result is Chelsea win at 50.0%. Full probabilities: Chelsea 50.0%, draw 25.3%, Leeds United 24.6%.
What is the most likely score in Chelsea vs Leeds United?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 12.0%. The model expects 1.68 goals for Chelsea and 1.11 for Leeds United.
Will Chelsea vs Leeds United have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 53.0% and both teams to score 55.3%.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-12
- Matches used
- 4,550
- Model version
- dc-v4-a868463ab9b9
- Data source
- Finished Premier League scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
Explore how upcoming results change the Premier League season outlook →