Premier League · Gameweek 7
Brighton vs Crystal Palace
Odds from leovegas. “Our fair odds” are the odds our model's chance implies, with no bookmaker margin. “Bookmaker chance” is the chance the odds imply once the margin is removed. The coloured chip is our chance minus the bookmaker chance, in percentage points. A gap is not a betting tip.
Our model makes Brighton 53.0% favourites against Crystal Palace; the market has 59.1%. Our model is less bullish on Brighton than the market.
Match preview
Brighton are 3rd on 10 points after 5 matches; Crystal Palace are 15th on 4. In 18 Premier League meetings since 2017-18, Brighton won 4, Crystal Palace won 6 and 8 were drawn. They last met on 8 Feb 2026: Brighton 0–1 Crystal Palace. In their last 5 league matches Brighton won 3 and Crystal Palace won 1.
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 54.5%Under 45.5%
- Both teams score
- 55.8%No 44.2%
- Expected goals
- 1.78 – 1.08Total 2.86
- Clean sheet
- 34% · 17%Brighton · Crystal Palace
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over | Under | Fair over | Fair under |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 78.8% | 21.2% | 1.27 | 4.71 |
| 2.5 | 54.5% | 45.5% | 1.84 | 2.20 |
| 3.5 | 32.2% | 67.8% | 3.11 | 1.47 |
Regular time only. Expected goals are averages of modelled scorelines, not shot-based xG. Goal probabilities come from the same score grid as the result probabilities and have not been separately calibrated.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›How the probabilities are made
The probabilities come from a Dixon–Coles model fitted only on matches that had already finished. It uses league home advantage and each team's attack and defence strength. It does not use injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Questions about Brighton vs Crystal Palace
Who is the favourite in Brighton vs Crystal Palace?
Our model's most likely result is Brighton win at 53.0%. Full probabilities: Brighton 53.0%, draw 25.0%, Crystal Palace 21.9%. De-vigged market odds give 59.1%.
What is the most likely score in Brighton vs Crystal Palace?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 11.9%. The model expects 1.78 goals for Brighton and 1.08 for Crystal Palace.
Will Brighton vs Crystal Palace have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 54.5% and both teams to score 55.8%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. A gap between the model and the market is not evidence of a betting edge. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-05
- Matches used
- 4540
- Odds checked
- 5 Oct 2026, 01:57 UTC
- Model version
- dc-v4-f7f29581a715
- Data source
- Odds snapshots and finished Premier League scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.