Premier League · Gameweek 11
Hull City vs Brighton Prediction
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Forecast published
Model: Brighton 43.8%
Premier League online record: 26 of 50 most likely results correct (52%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 24/50 (48%). Hull City: 2 of 5. Brighton: 4 of 5. See every prediction ›
Hull City vs Brighton: prediction analysis
Hull City are 13th with 11 points, while Brighton are second with 22 points. Hull City have drawn three and lost two of their last five, while Brighton have won four. Hull City are unbeaten at home in five matches, with one win and four draws; Brighton have won three of five away. The model's top score is 1-1.
Team news
Hull City
- Out
- Morita (injured), Targett (injured), Ansah (injured), Hughes (injured), Matazo (injured)
- Doubtful
- Belloumi (75%), Gyabi (75%)
- In form
- Oli McBurnie 2 goals, 1 assist
Brighton
- Out
- Struijk (injured), Yohanna (injured), Azeez (injured), Ferguson (injured), Mitoma (injured), Tzimas (injured)
- In form
- Pascal Groß 1 goal, 2 assists · Luka Vušković 2 assists
Squad status from Fantasy Premier League, checked 12 Nov 2026, 00:04 UTC. Line-ups not confirmed; assists follow FPL scoring. The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Home and away form
Hull City at home
5 played · 1W · 4D · 0L
Goals per match: 1.4 scored · 1.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 31 Oct 2026 · Ipswich · 2–2 (D)
- 25 Oct 2026 · Brentford · 1–1 (D)
- 11 Oct 2026 · Everton · 2–2 (D)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Aston Villa · 0–0 (D)
- 22 Aug 2026 · Manchester United · 2–0 (W)
Brighton away
5 played · 3W · 0D · 2L
Goals per match: 2.2 scored · 1.2 conceded
Results in this sample
- 31 Oct 2026 · Manchester City · 1–0 (W)
- 25 Oct 2026 · Liverpool · 0–2 (L)
- 10 Oct 2026 · Sunderland · 2–0 (W)
- 13 Sept 2026 · Coventry City · 5–0 (W)
- 30 Aug 2026 · Chelsea · 3–4 (L)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Hull City vs Brighton: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 44.8%Under 55.2%
- Both teams score
- 50.1%No 49.9%
- Predicted goals
- 1.07 – 1.40Total 2.47 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 25% · 34%Hull City · Brighton
Most likely scores
1–1 is the most likely single score (13.3%), but more scorelines end in Brighton winning, so that is the most likely result (43.8%).
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 71.2% | 28.8% |
| 2.5 | 44.8% | 55.2% |
| 3.5 | 23.5% | 76.5% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Hull City to score 1.07 goals and Brighton 1.40. Hull City are newly promoted with 10 matches played, so their rating leans on a promoted-club prior and is less certain. Full methodology.
Questions about Hull City vs Brighton
Who is the favourite in Hull City vs Brighton?
Our model's most likely result is Brighton win at 43.8%. Full probabilities: Hull City 28.1%, draw 28.1%, Brighton 43.8%.
What is the most likely score in Hull City vs Brighton?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 13.3%. The model expects 1.07 goals for Hull City and 1.40 for Brighton.
Will Hull City vs Brighton have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 44.8% and both teams to score 50.1%.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-12
- Matches used
- 4,550
- Model version
- dc-v4-4077a67ebb9d
- Data source
- Finished Premier League scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
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