Premier League · Gameweek 7
Tottenham vs Coventry City Prediction
Best odds are the highest price among UK sportsbooks, with who offers it (+n when others match it). “Our fair odds” are the odds our model's chance implies, with no bookmaker margin. “Bookmaker chance” is the chance the odds imply once the margin is removed. The coloured chip compares our chance with the bookmaker chance. A gap is not a betting tip.
Tottenham are favourites at 59.2% in the model, compared with a 63.6% market probability. The model gives Tottenham a lower chance than the bookmakers do.
Tottenham vs Coventry City odds by bookmaker
Casumo has the lowest margin on this match at 4.0%. The highest sportsbook price for each result is marked.
| Bookmaker | 1 · Tottenham1 | X · DrawX | 2 · Coventry City2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casumo | 1/2 (best price) | 7/2 (best price) | 11/2 (best price) | 4.0% |
| Grosvenor | 1/2 (best price) | 7/2 (best price) | 11/2 (best price) | 4.0% |
| Betfred | 1/2 (best price) | 7/2 (best price) | 5/1 | 5.1% |
| Sky Bet | 1/2 (best price) | 7/2 | 9/2 | 6.3% |
| William Hill | 1/2 (best price) | 10/3 | 5/1 | 6.4% |
| Unibet | 1/2 | 7/2 (best price) | 9/2 | 6.7% |
| Paddy Power | 1/2 (best price) | 7/2 | 9/2 | 7.1% |
| 888sport | 1/2 (best price) | 10/3 | 9/2 | 7.9% |
| Betway | 1/2 | 7/2 | 9/2 | 8.0% |
| LiveScore Bet | 4/9 | 10/3 | 5/1 | 8.3% |
| Virgin Bet | 4/9 | 10/3 | 5/1 | 8.3% |
| LeoVegas | 4/9 | 7/2 | 9/2 | 9.0% |
| BoyleSports | 4/9 | 10/3 | 5/1 | 9.2% |
| Betfair Exchange exchange | 8/15 | 7/2 | 11/2 | 2.3% |
| Smarkets exchange | 1/2 | 7/2 | 5/1 | 4.1% |
Margin is how far the bookmaker's implied chances add up past 100%; lower means a bettor keeps more of each stake on average. Exchange prices are before the commission charged on winnings, so they are not compared. Prices can change at any time. We have no commercial relationship with any bookmaker. What level stakes have returned at closing prices.
Match preview
Tottenham are 20th on 2 points after 5 matches, while Coventry City are 18th on 3 points. Tottenham's recent form is LDDLL and Coventry City's is WLLLL. Tottenham have 0 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses at home; Coventry City have 1 win and 2 losses away.
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 49.7%Under 50.3%
- Both teams score
- 48.8%No 51.2%
- Expected goals
- 1.81 – 0.85Total 2.66
- Clean sheet
- 43% · 16%Tottenham · Coventry City
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over | Under | Fair over | Fair under |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 75.3% | 24.7% | 1/3 | 3/1 |
| 2.5 | 49.7% | 50.3% | evs | evs |
| 3.5 | 27.8% | 72.2% | 5/2 | 2/5 |
Regular time only. Expected goals are averages of modelled scorelines, not shot-based xG. Goal probabilities come from the same score grid as the result probabilities and have not been separately calibrated.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
Coventry City injury news · Tottenham injury news
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Why the model sees it this way
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Tottenham to score 1.81 goals and Coventry City 0.85. Its ratings have Tottenham scoring at 1.05 times the model's Premier League average and conceding at 1.05 times, against 0.64 and 1.15 for Coventry City. The widest gap with the bookmakers is on Tottenham winning: 59.2% in the model against 63.6% implied by the odds. How the model works.
Questions about Tottenham vs Coventry City
Who is the favourite in Tottenham vs Coventry City?
Our model's most likely result is Tottenham win at 59.2%. Full probabilities: Tottenham 59.2%, draw 24.4%, Coventry City 16.4%. De-vigged market odds give 63.6%.
What is the most likely score in Tottenham vs Coventry City?
1–0 is the single most likely score at 11.8%. The model expects 1.81 goals for Tottenham and 0.85 for Coventry City.
Will Tottenham vs Coventry City have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 49.7% and both teams to score 48.8%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. A gap between the model and the market is not evidence of a betting edge. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-05
- Matches used
- 4,540
- Odds checked
- 5 Oct 2026, 21:36 UTC
- Model version
- dc-v4-e25e5e287aed
- Data source
- Odds snapshots and finished Premier League scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.