Serie A · Gameweek 11 · Archived pre-match analysis
Venezia 2–1 Udinese
Full time
Forecast published
Published model: Udinese 41.8%
Serie A online record: 33 of 50 most likely results correct (66%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 23/50 (46%). Venezia: 3 of 5. Udinese: 2 of 5. See every prediction ›
Result vs our prediction
Before kickoff, the published model gave Venezia a 30.0% probability. The highest-probability outcome was Udinese. The result did not match that outcome. The final score was outside the five most likely published scorelines.
Snapshot recorded 6 Nov 2026, 17:06 UTC. One match cannot establish model accuracy; see the full model record.
Prediction used in our model record
Recorded before kickoff and never edited. This fixed snapshot is what the model record scores.
Pre-match context
Saved before kickoff; not rewritten after the result.
Venezia are 20th on 3 points after 10 matches; Udinese are 19th on 5. In 4 Serie A meetings since 2021-22, Venezia won 1, Udinese won 3 and none were drawn. They last met on 1 Feb 2025: Udinese 3–2 Venezia. In their last 5 league matches Venezia won 1 and Udinese won 0.
Team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Home and away form
Venezia at home
4 played · 1W · 0D · 3L
Goals per match: 0.8 scored · 2.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 28 Oct 2026 · Inter Milan · 0–2 (L)
- 17 Oct 2026 · Napoli · 1–0 (W)
- 19 Sept 2026 · Lazio · 0–2 (L)
- 11 Sept 2026 · Fiorentina · 2–4 (L)
Udinese away
4 played · 1W · 1D · 2L
Goals per match: 1.8 scored · 2.3 conceded
Results in this sample
- 28 Oct 2026 · Parma · 0–0 (D)
- 12 Oct 2026 · Torino · 1–2 (L)
- 14 Sept 2026 · Inter Milan · 3–5 (L)
- 29 Aug 2026 · Monza · 3–2 (W)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Venezia vs Udinese: attack and defence ratings
Published pre-match goal probabilities
- Over 2.5 goals
- 41.6%Under 58.4%
- Both teams score
- 47.4%No 52.6%
- Predicted goals
- 1.05 – 1.29Total 2.35 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 27% · 35%Venezia · Udinese
Most likely scores
1–1 is the most likely single score (13.2%), but more scorelines end in Udinese winning, so that is the most likely result (41.8%).
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 68.1% | 31.9% |
| 2.5 | 41.6% | 58.4% |
| 3.5 | 21.0% | 79.0% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Venezia to score 1.05 goals and Udinese 1.29. Its ratings have Venezia scoring at 0.73 times the model's Serie A average and conceding at 1.13 times, against 0.94 and 1.08 for Udinese. Full methodology.
Questions about Venezia vs Udinese
What was the Venezia vs Udinese result?
Venezia 2–1 Udinese at full time. Scores cover regular time only.
What was our pre-match prediction for Venezia vs Udinese?
The fixed model record stored at 2026-11-05T15:50:40.357756+00:00, before kickoff, gave Venezia 30.0%, a draw 28.1% and Udinese 41.9%. Probabilities are not guarantees.
What were the published pre-match expected goals for Venezia vs Udinese?
The forecast published at 2026-11-06T17:06:11.305155+00:00 estimated 1.05 goals for Venezia and 1.29 for Udinese (2.35 total). These are model expectations, not post-match shot-based xG. The most likely published score was 1–1 (13.2%).
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-06
- Matches used
- 4,550
- Model version
- dc-v4-fd2a624b2a31
- Data source
- Finished Serie A scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
Explore how upcoming results change the Serie A season outlook →