Serie A · Gameweek 11 · Archived pre-match analysis
Torino 1–1 Lecce
Full time
Forecast published
Published model: Torino 47.9%
Serie A online record: 33 of 50 most likely results correct (66%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 23/50 (46%). Torino: 4 of 5. Lecce: 3 of 5. See every prediction ›
Result vs our prediction
Before kickoff, the published model gave Draw a 27.8% probability. The highest-probability outcome was Torino. The result did not match that outcome. The final score ranked #2 in the five most likely published scorelines.
Snapshot recorded 7 Nov 2026, 10:05 UTC. One match cannot establish model accuracy; see the full model record.
Prediction used in our model record
Recorded before kickoff and never edited. This fixed snapshot is what the model record scores.
Pre-match context
Saved before kickoff; not rewritten after the result.
Torino are 10th on 13 points after 10 matches; Lecce are 14th on 9. In 12 Serie A meetings since 2008-09, Torino won 6, Lecce won 4 and 2 were drawn. They last met on 1 Feb 2026: Torino 1–0 Lecce. In their last 5 league matches Torino won 3 and Lecce won 1.
Team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Home and away form
Torino at home
4 played · 2W · 0D · 2L
Goals per match: 1.5 scored · 2.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 27 Oct 2026 · Como · 1–3 (L)
- 23 Oct 2026 · Monza · 3–2 (W)
- 12 Oct 2026 · Udinese · 2–1 (W)
- 14 Sept 2026 · Roma · 0–2 (L)
Lecce away
4 played · 1W · 0D · 3L
Goals per match: 1.0 scored · 2.3 conceded
Results in this sample
- 29 Oct 2026 · Frosinone · 1–5 (L)
- 18 Oct 2026 · Udinese · 3–0 (W)
- 20 Sept 2026 · AC Milan · 0–3 (L)
- 7 Sept 2026 · Cagliari · 0–1 (L)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Torino vs Lecce: attack and defence ratings
Published pre-match goal probabilities
- Over 2.5 goals
- 39.7%Under 60.3%
- Both teams score
- 44.4%No 55.6%
- Predicted goals
- 1.38 – 0.90Total 2.27 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 41% · 25%Torino · Lecce
Most likely scores
No single score is likely: even the most likely, 1–0, happens only 14.0% of the time.
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 66.5% | 33.5% |
| 2.5 | 39.7% | 60.3% |
| 3.5 | 19.5% | 80.5% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Torino to score 1.38 goals and Lecce 0.90. Its ratings have Torino scoring at 0.95 times the model's Serie A average and conceding at 1.03 times, against 0.72 and 1.08 for Lecce. Full methodology.
Questions about Torino vs Lecce
What was the Torino vs Lecce result?
Torino 1–1 Lecce at full time. Scores cover regular time only.
What was our pre-match prediction for Torino vs Lecce?
The fixed model record stored at 2026-11-06T12:58:20.132262+00:00, before kickoff, gave Torino 47.8%, a draw 27.9% and Lecce 24.3%. Probabilities are not guarantees.
What were the published pre-match expected goals for Torino vs Lecce?
The forecast published at 2026-11-07T10:05:40.662068+00:00 estimated 1.38 goals for Torino and 0.90 for Lecce (2.27 total). These are model expectations, not post-match shot-based xG. The most likely published score was 1–0 (14.0%).
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-07
- Matches used
- 4,551
- Model version
- dc-v4-3ba9a61d7aea
- Data source
- Finished Serie A scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
Explore how upcoming results change the Serie A season outlook →