Serie A · Gameweek 11 · Archived pre-match analysis
Parma 1–2 Bologna
Full time
Forecast published
Published model: Bologna 45.2%
Serie A online record: 33 of 50 most likely results correct (66%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 23/50 (46%). Parma: 3 of 5. Bologna: 4 of 5. See every prediction ›
Result vs our prediction
Before kickoff, the published model gave Bologna a 45.2% probability. The highest-probability outcome was Bologna. The result matched that outcome. The final score was outside the five most likely published scorelines.
Snapshot recorded 7 Nov 2026, 14:51 UTC. One match cannot establish model accuracy; see the full model record.
Prediction used in our model record
Recorded before kickoff and never edited. This fixed snapshot is what the model record scores.
Pre-match context
Saved before kickoff; not rewritten after the result.
Parma are 15th on 8 points after 10 matches; Bologna are 9th on 14. In 20 Serie A meetings since 2009-10, Parma won 5, Bologna won 6 and 9 were drawn. They last met on 8 Feb 2026: Bologna 0–1 Parma. In their last 5 league matches Parma won 1 and Bologna won 4.
Team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Home and away form
Parma at home
4 played · 1W · 2D · 1L
Goals per match: 0.8 scored · 1.3 conceded
Results in this sample
- 28 Oct 2026 · Udinese · 0–0 (D)
- 19 Oct 2026 · Torino · 0–3 (L)
- 20 Sept 2026 · Genoa · 2–1 (W)
- 6 Sept 2026 · Monza · 1–1 (D)
Bologna away
5 played · 3W · 0D · 2L
Goals per match: 1.6 scored · 1.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 28 Oct 2026 · AC Milan · 4–2 (W)
- 24 Oct 2026 · Cagliari · 2–0 (W)
- 11 Oct 2026 · Lecce · 2–1 (W)
- 13 Sept 2026 · Napoli · 0–1 (L)
- 31 Aug 2026 · Atalanta · 0–1 (L)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Parma vs Bologna: attack and defence ratings
Published pre-match goal probabilities
- Over 2.5 goals
- 38.2%Under 61.8%
- Both teams score
- 43.9%No 56.1%
- Predicted goals
- 0.92 – 1.30Total 2.22 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 27% · 40%Parma · Bologna
Most likely scores
No single score is likely: even the most likely, 0–1, happens only 14.0% of the time.
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 65.2% | 34.8% |
| 2.5 | 38.2% | 61.8% |
| 3.5 | 18.4% | 81.6% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Parma to score 0.92 goals and Bologna 1.30. Its ratings have Parma scoring at 0.76 times the model's Serie A average and conceding at 0.97 times, against 1.10 and 0.90 for Bologna. Full methodology.
Questions about Parma vs Bologna
What was the Parma vs Bologna result?
Parma 1–2 Bologna at full time. Scores cover regular time only.
What was our pre-match prediction for Parma vs Bologna?
The fixed model record stored at 2026-11-06T12:58:20.132262+00:00, before kickoff, gave Parma 26.2%, a draw 28.6% and Bologna 45.2%. Probabilities are not guarantees.
What were the published pre-match expected goals for Parma vs Bologna?
The forecast published at 2026-11-07T14:51:53.182243+00:00 estimated 0.92 goals for Parma and 1.30 for Bologna (2.22 total). These are model expectations, not post-match shot-based xG. The most likely published score was 0–1 (14.0%).
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-07
- Matches used
- 4,551
- Model version
- dc-v4-14a4482ddbd9
- Data source
- Finished Serie A scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
Explore how upcoming results change the Serie A season outlook →