Serie A · Gameweek 11 · Archived pre-match analysis
Roma 3–0 Sassuolo
Full time
Forecast published
Published model: Roma 67.8%
Serie A online record: 33 of 50 most likely results correct (66%). Forecasts fixed before kickoff. Home-team baseline: 23/50 (46%). Roma: 4 of 5. Sassuolo: 5 of 5. See every prediction ›
Result vs our prediction
Before kickoff, the published model gave Roma a 67.8% probability. The highest-probability outcome was Roma. The result matched that outcome. The final score ranked #5 in the five most likely published scorelines.
Snapshot recorded 7 Nov 2026, 19:07 UTC. One match cannot establish model accuracy; see the full model record.
Prediction used in our model record
Recorded before kickoff and never edited. This fixed snapshot is what the model record scores.
Pre-match context
Saved before kickoff; not rewritten after the result.
Roma host Sassuolo in Serie A on 7 Nov 2026. Roma’s recent form is WWDWD from 5 matches, while Sassuolo’s is LLLLD. Roma have won 13 of 24 head-to-head meetings, compared with 2 Sassuolo wins, and Roma won the last meeting 2-0 on 10 Jan 2026. Roma are unbeaten at home across 5 matches, while Sassuolo have 0 wins in 5 away matches.
Team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Home and away form
Roma at home
4 played · 3W · 1D · 0L
Goals per match: 2.5 scored · 1.3 conceded
Results in this sample
- 27 Oct 2026 · Cagliari · 4–2 (W)
- 17 Oct 2026 · Genoa · 2–0 (W)
- 19 Sept 2026 · Inter Milan · 2–2 (D)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Atalanta · 2–1 (W)
Sassuolo away
4 played · 0W · 1D · 3L
Goals per match: 1.3 scored · 2.5 conceded
Results in this sample
- 24 Oct 2026 · Como · 0–2 (L)
- 16 Oct 2026 · Frosinone · 2–4 (L)
- 18 Sept 2026 · Monza · 1–2 (L)
- 6 Sept 2026 · Bologna · 2–2 (D)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Roma vs Sassuolo: attack and defence ratings
Published pre-match goal probabilities
- Over 2.5 goals
- 63.6%Under 36.4%
- Both teams score
- 55.7%No 44.3%
- Predicted goals
- 2.32 – 0.96Total 3.28 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 38% · 10%Roma · Sassuolo
Most likely scores
No single score is likely: even the most likely, 2–0, happens only 10.2% of the time.
All goal lines and definitions
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 84.0% | 16.0% |
| 2.5 | 63.6% | 36.4% |
| 3.5 | 41.5% | 58.5% |
Historical club rates: over 2.5 goals · BTTS. These are separate from this forecast.
Definitions: expected goals · Dixon–Coles · over/under and BTTS.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Roma to score 2.32 goals and Sassuolo 0.96. Its ratings have Roma scoring at 1.42 times the model's Serie A average and conceding at 0.73 times, against 1.07 and 1.22 for Sassuolo. Full methodology.
Questions about Roma vs Sassuolo
What was the Roma vs Sassuolo result?
Roma 3–0 Sassuolo at full time. Scores cover regular time only.
What was our pre-match prediction for Roma vs Sassuolo?
The fixed model record stored at 2026-11-06T17:06:11.305155+00:00, before kickoff, gave Roma 67.7%, a draw 18.4% and Sassuolo 13.9%. Probabilities are not guarantees.
What were the published pre-match expected goals for Roma vs Sassuolo?
The forecast published at 2026-11-07T19:07:52.517977+00:00 estimated 2.32 goals for Roma and 0.96 for Sassuolo (3.28 total). These are model expectations, not post-match shot-based xG. The most likely published score was 2–0 (10.2%).
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-11-07
- Matches used
- 4,551
- Model version
- dc-v4-ac7f52ce92f4
- Data source
- Finished Serie A scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
Explore how upcoming results change the Serie A season outlook →